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Swing Trade Idea – November 15, 2022

Color Key: Positive – Negative – Neutral

Market Setup- Pre 830ET PRE PPI

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia –Bullish global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields are lower

•US$ -.52% the Euro +.5%, the Yen +.49%, and the GBP +1.07%

•News: USA: The Empire State MFG, PPI 8:30 ET China:  Retail Sales display -.5% vs +.7%, Ind Prod displays 5% vs 5.4% Japan: GDP q/q -.3% vs 0.3% Europe: ZEW -38.7 vs -52, Employment q/q 0.2% vs 0.4%

Stocks: The WMT +7% beat and buyback forecast shows a 7% drop in earnings in Q4, Sympathy: AMZN and BJ; AMZN had +3% layoffs. BAC shows -1% and HD -1.5% shows a beat, but is slowing with a +24% inventory growth. PARA and TSM display +10%  and LPX Buffet bought FDX, furloughing workers.

•General: Leading: China_Internet, Bitcoin, Spec tech Lagging: US$ commodities

•Indices: The USA indices are rising overnight towards previous highs with lower yields and lower US$ catalysts. The foreign econ data is not supporting the move in the US$ is an anomaly. The PPI data at 8:30ET may continue the move or can possibly reverse it. The SPY has a 399.2 support with a 395, and a resistance of 400. The SPX displays a very high open interest at 4,000 which in my opinion can act as resistance (likely) or a squeeze above. The very high, same day, SPX option trading is driving markets. In my opinion there can be some large moves in either direction.  The Pre-market market is risk-off with high beta stocks leading. In my opinion, the Buffet TSM investment will drive semis and WMT will drive retail.  Commodities are interestingly lagging with the US$ displaying lower and following the meme that China’s economy is slowing.

•Stocks to watch  WMT COST  BABA LPX AMD PARA UUP Spec Names  SHLS SE NFLX

Pre-800ET

Earnings HD SE VVV VOD WMT

Indices KWEB /btc ARKK EEM SMH SOXX EWZ ICLN IPO XBI XRT QQQ UUP

S&P500 PARA NFLX LIN AMD LVS CCL ENPH WYNN NVDA MRNA AMZN BBWI CTRA

IWM LPX NVAX PACB RUN MSTR CWX PLUG GME APPS OSTK M AI

WSB BABA NIO AFRM MSTR COIN AMD PLUG NVDA NET UPST CRSR

Movers AZTA SHLS BILI SE BABA GDS TSM LPX BZ JD BEKE ENR LI NTES PTLO CRSR FLNG VOD LTHM BC MT

Trade Idea: WMT
I feel that WMT is in play on beating expectations and a $20B buyback. The earnings missed a $3.1B opioid settlement; however, the market is applauding growth slowdown slower than expected. Premarket high 149.5 trigger for momentum long but look for > 150. Prefer pullback > 147 for a long. COST, BJ and AMZN will move in sympathy and likely retail in general.