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  • Swing Trade Idea – December 13, 2022

    Dec 13, 2022 Uncategorized Comments Off on Swing Trade Idea – December 13, 2022

    Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

    Market Setup – Pre830ET

    •Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive global set-up

    •Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

    •Yields: Yields are Lower

    •Currencies:  US$ -.26%, Euro +.22%, Yen +.31%, GBP +.35%

    News:  USA: CPI 830ET Europe: German ZEW -23 vs -26

    •Stocks: BA +1.9%, UAL deal announced, LLY -1%, Reduced 2023 guidance NFE +5%, Positive guidance, ORCL +3% earnings beat, MRNA +9%, Positive endpoint in Cancer trial – unreviewed; Binance paused withdrawals of stablecoin USDC – but bitcoin is higher, MRTX +8% FDA approval

    •General Leading: bitcoin, China Internet, spec tech, gold miners Lagging:  Brazil, emerging markets, telecom

    •Indices: The USA indices are squeezing higher ahead of the CPI report. The SPY 402 is above 400 support with 405 and 410 resistance. I expect the move to be +/- 0.7. The QQQ 288 is at resistance with 285 support and 290, with 295 resistance. I expect a move today +/-6.7.  In my opinion, the market is set-up for a low CPI print and subsequent FED dovishness i.e equities, bonds, commodities higher and the US$ are lower.  The setup is currently risk-on. If this continues into the open I will look for spec tech and biotech to lead along with highly shorted stocks.

    Stocks to watch:  MRNA, ORCL, BA, NVDA, MSFT, TSLA, LLY Spec Names PINS, MRTX, TTD

    Pre-800ET

    Earnings ORCL

    Indices /btc, KWEB, ARKK, GDX, DIA, TLT, XLE, XLB, faangmt, SPY, EWZ, EEM, IYZ, ICLN, EFA

    S&P500 MRNA, ORCL, BA, PFE, TSLA, NVDA, EOG, TRMB, PCG, LLY, NCLH, NTAP

    IWM MRTX, MSTR, BTU, PLUG

    WSB MSTR, BA, RIVN, TSLA, NVDA, COIN

    Movers MRTX, ABCL, PINS, BILI, ORCL, RIVN, EQNR, SPR, BA, TSLA, JD, BP, UPST, PFE, DOCU, TTD, NVDA, SNOW, PCG, GFI, EURN, DFS, LLY 

    My Trade Idea: SPY
    In my opinion, Pre-CPI USA markets are risk-on with a premarket high of $401.79. I will take a straddle approach with long over $402 with targets of $405, $406.5, and $410.  If there is a pullback to $400, this can potentially lead to a bounce but below $400 there is potential to fade to $398 and $395.

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