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Swing Trade Idea – December 15, 2022

Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup – Pre830ET

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia –Negative global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields are lower

•Currencies:  US$ +.39% Euro -.44% Yen -.92% GBP -.5%

News:  USA: Core retail sales, Philly Fed, Empire State MFG, UE claims   830ET, Europe: ECB rate 815ET

•Stocks: TSLA -1.5% Elon sold 22M shares; LEN EPS displays a beat with a forecast of lower sales; VZ upgrade with a 44 target, T downgrade with a 20 target, and ALB displays a lower target.

•General: Leading: US$, Lagging:  Gold Miners, China Internet, Semis, Spec_Tech, Emerging Markets

•Indices: Global indices are lower post FOMC meeting but are ahead of the ECB rate decision. The FOMC raised rate forecasts with no projected cuts in 2023, however the bond market has not reacted implying to me that it does not believe the Fed. The US$ is currently higher weighing on equities and commodities but will potentially change with the announcement of the ECB. The DJIA stocks are currently outperforming and the NASDAQ is lagging.  Large cap tech stocks are lagging with TSLA and NVDA displaying as the weakest. The SPY is at 395 which in my opinion is an important level with a 390 support and 400 and 405 resistance. In my analysis, the market is currently risk-off but there is a lot of market moving USA data plus the ECB pre-market.  I think the SPY is at a critical level of 390 and ES 3911. In my opinion the downside is a risk today given that Fed was more hawkish than expected by the market. The indices are oversold so a bounce at the open is what I expect but take care overnight if the lows are broken.

•Stocks to watch  VZ, TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, NEM Spec Names EDU

Pre-800ET

Earnings LEN, TCOM

Indices UUP, GDX, KWEB, SOXX, ARKK, GLD, SMH, EEM, XME, LIT, QQQ, XBI, XLK, XLB

S&P500 VZ, WDC, ALB, NEM, NVDA, ENPH, AMD, MAR, GOOGL, AMZN, T, META, MU, CRM, PYPL

IWM NVAX, APPS, PLUG, LTHM, GME, CROX, BKU, T

WSB BBIG, DWAC, MVIS, GSAT, SKLZ, NVDA, BABA, PLUG, GME, TSLA, SOFI, AMZN, RIVN, UPST, SPCE, PLTR

Movers ABCL, EDU, TTE, LI, BNTX, VZ, NVAX, NFE, WDC, TTD, BILI, SQM, GOLD, I, AU, SE, ROKU, GFI, APPS, ALB, BEKE, NEM

My Trade Idea: TSLA
TSLA has been under distribution with Elon selling large blocks of stock over the last 3 days. If Elon announces he is finished selling I believe the stock will bounce. The premarket low of 151.33 and currently 155.3.  I will take the straddle approach leaning short below 155 with target 150 and long above 155 with targets 160+. The resistance of 162 and above may quickly run to 170.