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Swing Trade Idea – January 20, 2023

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia –  Neutral global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields are higher

•Currencies:  US$ +.28%, Euro -0.1%, Yen -1.3%, AUD +.45%

•News:  USA: Harker 9ET, Home Sales 10ET Japan: CPI4% Europe: German PPI -.4% vs -1.2% UK: Retail sales -1% vs 0.5%

•Stocks: NFLX +7% miss Estimates raised 250-417; GOOGL +3.5% cutting 6%; JWN cuts guidance KSS M trading lower SLB +1.2% earnings beat W layoffs FAANGMT AAPL +.5%, AMZN +.9%, NVDA +1%, TSLA +1.7% General FANG love

•General: Leading: China Internet, ARKK Semis Lagging: bitcoin, TLT, gold

Indices: USA mildly positive with the premarket led by Nasdaq. Macro setups are negative with yields, US$ higher, and energy higher but global equity markets are bullish. SPY 389 is effectively at a gamma level with a resistance of 392 and 395 has the support of 387, 385, and 380 gamma levels. QQQ consolidating at 275 gamma level with the resistance of 278, 280 with support of 270. Configuration in risk-on with FAANGMT and speculative stocks bid; however the macro setup is bearish so take care.  Today is a very large options expiration day with markets in negative gamma, expect elevated volatility and I will look for large moves late in the day. Bullish above 390.5 and caution below 388. Potential for a SPY pin 390.

Stocks to watch GOOGL, NFLX, BIDU, TSLA, JWN, TMUS, M, CRM, Spec Names PD, JKS, FRO, EDU

Pre-800ET

Earnings NFLX, PPG, SIVB, ALLY, HBAN, RF, SLB, STT

Indices KWEB, LIT, ARKK, SOXX, EEM, SMH, QQQ, /btc, TLT, GLD, DIA

S&P500 NFLX, GOOGL, BIIB, TSLA, RL, TMUS, CRM, LLY, MOS

IWM FRO, PLUG, SPWR, SAVA, RUN, M

WSB COIN, PLUG, BABA, TSLA, NIO, RIVN, AFRM

Movers PD, EDU, NFLX, JKS, GDS, BIDU, BILI, GOOGL, FUTU, PDD, FRO, JD, COIN, TSLA, JWN, KSS, TMUS, M, GFI, AZN, MOS

My Trade Idea: NFLX
In my opinion, NFLX 336.5 is in play post earnings after a miss but net adds are greater than expected. Analysts have raised targets. Premarket high 345.6 and premarket low 333. in my analysis, the Straddle approach can be applied with long on dips > 333 and potential fade below. 345 and 350 are long targets and 330, and 325 are short targets.  DIS, ROKU, and TTD should track NFLX today