.

Swing Trade Idea – January 27, 2023

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, Hong Kong Asia –  Mild Negative global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields are higher

•Currencies:  US$ +.06%, Euro -0.12%, Yen +.25%

News:  USA: PCE 830 ET UofM 10 ET Pending Home Sales 10ET

•Stocks: TSLA +2% Squeeze continues; INTC -10% major miss and bleak update; AXP +5% miss ; CVX -1.2%  miss but large increase in rev; KLAC -4.8% -guidance; V +1% beat; CHWY +3.5% Upgrade HAS -3.5% -guidance, 15% staff cut; LHX +1.8% beat

•General: Leading: US$ GLD Lagging: Semis, Clean Energy, TLT, technology, airlines

Indices: USA indices consolidating at slightly lower levels post Thursday’s squeeze. Macro setup is slightly negative with yields higher, US$ slightly higher, energy higher and European equities are negative. SPY 403.6 with the support of 400 and 395 with resistance of  405 and 410. QQQ 292 with resistance of 295 with support of 290, 288, and 285. INTC and KLAC forecasts throwing cold water on the red hot semi sector which has so far overcome continuous negative forecasts. Watch NVDA and AMD for a reaction. USA PCE data at 830 ET and consumer confidence data at 10 ET are potential market movers. QQQ is at the top of the expected move for the week with AMD, NVDA, META, TSLA, and AAPL are above the expected move for the week and hence susceptible to pullback today with caveat that the relentless call buying can continue. Rising yields have historically been negative for tech but lately call buyers don’t care. Watch yield and US$ reaction to PCE

Stocks to watch TSLA, AXP, BAC, INTC, AMD, NVDA Spec Names CHWY, VIR

Pre-800ET

Earnings KLAC, LHX, OLN, PACW, AXP, BAH, CHTR, CL, CVX, HCA, INTC

Indices UUP, ITB, GLD, DIA, XOP, SOXX, TLT, ICLN, /btc, JETS, ARKK, XLK, QQQ

S&P500 AXP, BWA, VTRS, V,  INTC, HAS, KLAC, AMAT, FTNT, VNO, MU, AAL, QCOM, CRM

IWM VIR, SPWR, PLUG

WSB AMD, NVDA, AFFRM, UPST, RIVN, PLUG, BABA

Movers ALV, AXP, CHWY, VIR, BWA, VTRS, JD, V, SHEL, BP, INTC, HAS, KLAC, DDOG, AMAT, WDS, AMD, IBN, FTNT, BILI, GFI, ASML, NVDA

My Trade Idea: BAC
In my analysis, BAC is a potential idea should indices hold up but tech is distributed. Higher yields can lead to money moving into financials with BAC on of the liquid names. 35.41 is premarket high