Swing Trade Idea – January 31, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, Hong Kong Asia – Mild Negative global set-up
•Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals
•Yields: Yields are lower
•Currencies: US$ +.19% Euro -0.17% Yen +.10%
News: USA: Chicago PMI 9:45 ET, CB Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET; China: MFG PMI 50.1 vs 50.2 NonMFG PMI 54.4 vs 52 Europe: Pre-lim GDP q/q 0.1 vs -0.1 German Retail Sales -5.3% vs -0.1%
•Stocks: GM +4% EPS beat; UPS +1.25% EPS beat, -guidance, $5B buyback; SPOT +10% miss; PFE -2.6% forecast lower revenue; MCD -1.8% beat; CAT -2.5% EPS miss; Samsung chip profit 9 yr low, sharp slowdown Q4 2022; MPC, XOM big profits; LAC +13% GM investing 650M
General: Leading: bitcoin, bonds, and US$ Lagging: Gold Miners, Semiconductors, China Internet, and Spec tech
Indices: USA has declined since Asia opened and bouncing since 630ET. Macro setup mixed with global equities lower and yields are lower, US$ slightly higher, and commodities are lower. SPY 400 has support of 398, and 395 with a resistance of 405 and 410. QQQ 289 with the resistance of 290 and 295 with support of 288 and 285. The market is positioned for risk-off with US$ and bonds higher and commodities lower. SPY 400 and QQQ 290 are key bull-bear dividing lines.
Chicago PMI 9:45 and CB data 10:00 ET will be market moving so take care
Stocks to watch GM, LAC, F, TSLA, CAT, AMD, MU, GDX Spec Names SPOT, LAC, CVNA
Pre-800ET
Earnings CFLT, HLIT, HP, NXPI, ALGM, AOS, AQUA, CAT, GLW, GM, IP, MCD, MPC, MPLX,
Indices /btc, ICLN, TLT, UUP, GDX, SMH, SOXX, KWEB, LIT, EEM, GLD, ARKK, XLE, EFA, XLV, QQQ, XBI
S&P500 GM, IP, F, WHR, COP, MU, NXPI, PFE, WDC, CAT, MRNA, PARA, EW, NEM, XOM, NVDA, MCD, GLW, GE, AMD, TSLA
IWM CRK, GEO, HLIT, BTU, GME, AA, X
WSB F, GEO, NIO, BABA, AFRM, NVDA, AMD, GME, TSLA
Movers LAC, CVNA, CRK, GM, SPOT, HKD, F, IP, WHR, STLA, GEO, BUD, NFE, HLIT, PHG, MU, NXPI, LCID, GFI, PFE, GLW, CVAC, TSM, MRNA, UBS, BIDU, AU, WDC, CAT
My Trade Idea: SPOT
SPOT missed earnings but the market responded to user growth of 180%. Straddle approach: Long over 110 with target 113 and 117 or I will consider looking for pullback > 105. In my opinion, If the market turns risk-off potential fade < 105.
