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Swing Trade Idea – February 1, 2023

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, Hong Kong Asia –  Neutral global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields are lower

•Currencies:  US$ -.21%, Euro +0.29%, Yen +.34%

News:  USA: ADP payrolls at 8:15 ET, ISM MFG PMI at 10:00 ET, Jolts 10:00 ET; FOMC 14:00 ET ; China: Caixin MFG PMI 49.2 vs 49.8; Europe: Core CPI 5.2% vs 5.1%; MFG PMI 48.8

•Stocks: AMD +3.5% Q1 rev fct -10% no full yr guidance; SNAP -15% Q1 rev fct -10%; EA -10% -Guide; OI +10% beat; JNPR -3% beat XM +9% Potential acq by Silver Lake; SYK +1.7% beat; WH proposing limits on credit card late fees and to make it easier to bypass AAPL app store

•General: Leading: China Internet, Semi, Emerging markets Lagging: Bonds, DJIA stocks, Utilities

Indices: USA declined since Asian opened and bouncing since 6:30 ET. Macro setup mixed with USA equities lower, yields lower, US$ lower, and commodities lower. SPY 405 has the support of 400 and 395 resistance at  405, and 410. SPY expected move +/- 4 today. QQQ 295 with the resistance of 295, and 300 with support of 290, 288, and 285.

Large cap indices are at major gamma levels with ADP, JOLTS, ISM MFG and FOMC report today. The expectation is for Fed to raise 25bps and attempt to tighten financial conditions. The market is leaning towards higher long term yields which are negative for long bonds and bond proxies like utilities. In my opinion, Implied volatility usually drops post the meeting which can provide a lift to equities absent a major surprise.

Stocks to watch BIDU, AMD, SYK, EA, SNAP, META Spec Names XM

Pre-800ET

Earnings JNPR, MDLZ, MTCH, OI, DT, JCI, MO, NVO, NVS, PTON

Indices KWEB, SMH, EEM, LIT, SOXX, euro, ARKK, HYG, DIA, XLB, ITB, EWZ, AGG, XLU, TLT

S&P500 SYK, AMD, TSLA, MDLZ, LVS, EA, MTCH, WDC, WM, JCI, JNPR, SYF, TTWO, COF

IWM OI, AI, NEO, FRO, JELD, APPS, MRTX

WSB AMD, NIO, BABA, TSLA

Movers OI, XM, BIDU, LI, PTON, AI, GDS, NEO, XPEV, SYK, DT, EDU, AMD, BILI, DQ, FL, NTES, SNAP, EA, MTCH, BFH, WDC, BMBL, VOD, NVS, SBSW 

My Trade Idea: AMD
In my analysis, AMD is in play today after earnings. Premarket is 3.5% higher on a mixed report. Q1 revenue is 10% lower and no guidance for 2023. Analyst response is generally positive. Straddle approach with long > 78.8 or pullback > 76. Below 75 potential fade.