Swing Trade Idea – March 2, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative equity global set-up
•Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals
•Yields: Yields are higher
•Currencies: US$ +.44%; $EUR -.5%
News: USA: UE Claims 8:30 ET Europe: CPI 8.5% y/y vs 8.3%
Stocks: TSLA -8% investor day disappoints; CRM +15% EPS beat buybacks; OKTA +14% EPS beat M +6% EPS beat; BBY -2% -guidance; SNOW -8% -growth fct; TD EPS beat; SI -43% may no longer continue as a business-crypto bank
General: Leading: Software, US$, Oil, DJIA Lagging: Spec tech, Semiconductors, consumer discretionary
Overview: USA indices moved lower starting at 19:30 ET Wed. Macro negative with European indices lower, US$ higher, yields and oil are higher. SPY 393 with support at 390 and resistance at 395, 400, and 405. SPY expected move +/- 2.5 today. QQQ 289 with resistance at 290, and 295 with support of 288, and 285. Higher bond yields sparked by higher inflation is weighing on indices which are in negative gamma and are below major support levels. Positive CRM earnings providing support to software, OKTA supporting security stocks, TSLA meeting comments weakening ON, WOLF, MP and TSLA stock in danger zone for further decline. FAANGMT stocks in danger of breakdown today. In my opinion, SPY 390 is a potential target should market decline where support or major decline may be found today.
Stocks to watch CRM, OKTA, M, VEEV, TSLA, SNOW Spec Names WOLF, MP
Pre-800ET
Earnings AEO, AGL, BOX, CRM, DV, OKTA, PBR, PLUG, PSTG, SNOW, SPLK, SQM, BBY, BILI, BUD, HRL, KR, M, SIX, TD
Indices IGV, UUP, USO, DIA, ARKK, SOXX, XLY, SMH, ICLN, QQQ, LIT, IWM, ARKQ, euro, EFA
S&P500 CRM, NOW, SBNY, ON, TSLA, HRL, WYNN, FANG, DLTR, BBY, WHR, FCX, BAC, AMAT
IWM NTLA, AEO, RADI, ARRY, BOX, RVMD, CELH, SEM, NE, KAR, BGS
WSB TSLA, PLUG, COIN, BGS, NET, UPST
Movers OKTA, CRM, CRH, M, NTLA, VEEV, RADI, AEO, ARRY, BURL, NTES, FHN, SQM, NOW, WDAY, ZS, BHP, TS, WOLF, MP, PSTG, BOX, HAYW, SNOW, ON, SBNY, TSLA, RVMD, CELH, SEM, COHR, SPLK
My Trade Idea: TSLA
In my analysis, TSLA is trading lower post investor day. Premarket low 185.4. TSLA moves in increments of $5. Straddle approach can be used: below 185 look for 180 and 175 and above 185 also look for 190 and 195. Volume support is light below current price with 170 the next big support level.