Swing Trade Idea – March 13, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative equity global set-up
•Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals
•Yields: Yields are lower
•Currencies: US $ -.39%; $Yen +1.3%; $EURO +0.25%
News: USA: USA rolled out BTFP plan which backstops deposits at banks > $250k FIDC limit. SIVB and SBNY banks are closed. Concern is flight of deposits from banks where deposit levels are low relative to bank equity. Many banks have large mark to market losses due to long duration bonds. BTFP allows for loans against the underwater bonds. Risk flight of capital from riskiest banks
Stocks: ZIM +16% EPS; FRC -64% WAL -64% ; Meta +1.4% safe harbour? SGEN +17% PFE buying
General: Leading: Bitcoin, Gold Miners, and Biotech Lagging: Brazil, Financials, Oil, and Small Caps
Overview: The USA indices bounced Sunday with BTFP to SPY 393 and then fell to 383 since European opened. Macro setup mixed with European indices negative, US$ and yields are lower. SPY 384 with support of 383, and 380 with resistance at 385, 390, and 395. SPY expected move +/- 4.0. QQQ 289 with resistance at 290, and 295 has support of 287, and 285. QQQ expected move +/-3.5. Financial concerns have not dissipated inspite of the BTFP and remain a high risk today. Large cap tech is outperforming due to strong balance sheets. In my opinion, sharp drop in yields is providing a boost to precious metals and bonds; however commodities are weak implying economic weakness. In my analysis, there is potential today for a strong short squeeze on positive news or SPY bounce at 280. SPY < 280 is a very high risk for substantial downdraft.
Stocks to watch META, NEM, TLT, FRC, WAL, ZION Spec Names COIN
Pre-800ET
Earnings ZIM
Indices /btc, GDX, XBI, GLD, QQQ, TLT, KWEB, SOXX, XLK, faangmt, ARKK, SMH, AGG, JETS, XLF, USO, IWM, XLE, EFA, FEZ
S&P500 ILMN, NEM, META, AMAT, GOOGL, NVDA, MSFT, MRNA, ON, FRC, ZION, CMA, SBNY, TFS, SCHW, KEY, SCHW
IWM MSTR, ACAD, SUMO, AXSM, WWW, TGTX, EBC, JXN, CVBF
WSB MSTR, COIN, NVDA, BA, NET, F, WOOF
Movers SGEN, ZIM, AU, MSTR, XM, BILL, ILMN, ACAD, MNSO, BILI, PAAS, SUMO, AXSM, NEM, BKE, LI, GOLD, FRC, WAL, PACW, ZION, CMA, SCHW, TFC, SBNY, KEY
My Trade Idea: SPY
In my opinion, SPY has a +/- 3.8 expected move for today. Financials are weighing on markets. 380 is a major level where bounce is expected or a major downdraft. In my analysis, there is potential for strong short squeeze should government announce news that can calm markets.