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  • Swing Trade Idea – March 17, 2023

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ‘div’ – dividend 

    ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET PRE ECB

    Global MarketsUSA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia  Mild Negative equity global set-up

    CommoditiesGold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

    Yields: Yields are lower

    Currencies:  US $ -.24%; $Yen +.63%

    News: USA: Consumer Confidence at 10:00 ET

    Stocks FDX +12% Earnings Beat; Banks CS unresolved, USA banks borrowed $153B through discount window, Financials remain weak Squeeze: Premarket continuation in NVDA, AMD, COIN, and MSTR

    General: Leading: Bitcoin, China Internet, Oil, Bonds, and Gold Miners Lagging: Regional Banks, DJIA, Small caps

    Overview: USA indices are moving lower premarket. Macro setup positive with US$ and yields lower. SPY 391 with support of 390, 287, and 385 with resistance at 395, and 400. SPY expected move +/- 3.3. QQQ 306 with resistance at 308, and 310 with the support of 305, and 300. QQQ expected move +/-3.2. 

    Large quarterly Opex will lead to high intraday volatility at open and end of day. Indices have been largely supported by an outsize squeeze in large cap tech into Opex with FANG stocks making multi-standard deviation moves. QQQ 3.5% above the expected move for week so potential for pullback if the FANG puts are burned off and the out of the money calls burn off. Weakness in financials weighing on markets, hence its important for bulls that FANG does not pullback. Cannot rule out further squeezes but SPY 390 and QQQ 395 must hold

    Stocks to watch FDX, AMD, BABA, AA, FRC, IWM Spec Names COIN MSTR

    Pre-800ET

    Earnings FDX, LAC

    Indices /btc, KWEB, USO, TLT, GLD, GDX, SOXX, EEM, ARKK, TAN, KRE, XLF, DIA, IWM, XBI, ICLN

    S&P500 FDX, WBD, UPS, NVDA, FCX, AMD, FRC, ZION, HBAN, SCHW, META, KEY

    IWM MSTR, FRO, CPRX, ENVX, AI, BOWL, DOCN, TEX

    WSB MSTR, COIN, AI, BABA, AI, NVDA, BOWL

    Movers FDX, MSTR, FRO, COIN, BIDU, BEKE, EURN, WBD, X, UPS, BILI, WB, BABA, AI, PDD, YUMC, U, NVDA, ENVX, SRPT, FRC, PACW, UBS, HSBC








    My Trade Idea: FDX

    In my opinion, FDX is in play post earnings on a earnings beat and revenue miss. Analysts are increasing price targets from 225-267. Potential for additional short covering today.  Premarket high 229.95. I will look for a pullback > 220 for intraday dip longs . Price < 220 can be a fade idea.

     

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