Swing Trade Idea – March 22, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive equity global set-up
•Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals
•Yields: Yields are higher
•Currencies: US $ -.20%; $Yen -.3% Euro +.3%
News: USA: FOMC rate decision at 14:00 ET UK: CPI 10.4% y-y vs 9.9% pound higher
Stocks GME +47%, OLLI +10%, WGO +5.7% EPS NKE -1.5%, WOOF -6.5% EPS TSLA +.7%
•General: Leading: Emerging Markets, China Internet, Retail, Financials Lagging: Bonds, FAANGMT, Spec tech
Overview: USA indices consolidating after Tuesday’s late day surge (short squeeze). SPY 398.5 with the support of 395, and 390 with resistance at 400. SPY expected move +/- 4.4. QQQ 309.5 with resistance at 310 and the support of 305, and 300. QQQ expected move +/-6. USA indices are at the top of the expected move for the week, hence statistically extended. All FAANGMT less MSFT are above the expected move for week with short term call squeezes with reward/risk ratio tilted to risk. FOMC is expected to raise 25bps but focus will be on the forecast with the market pricing in aggressive cuts into end of year and FED previously forecasting no cuts. If FED forecast remains the same, risk of pullback with QQQ at the greatest risk.
Stocks to watch TSLA, ENPH, OLLI, GOOGL, NKE, TLT Spec Names GME
Pre-800ET
Earnings GME, HQY, OLLI, WGO, ARRY, WOOF, NKE
Indices EEM, XLF, GDX, KRE, IWM, EFA, TLT, USO, QQQ, XLE, XLK
S&P500 ENPH, HBAN, TSLA, ROST, FRC, GOOGL, BA, NKE, HST
IWM HQY, WGO, SMTC, DNUT, AI, ENVX, AKRO, ARRY
WSB GME, DNUT, TSLA, BABA, BA, WOOF
Movers GME, OLLI, WGO, HSBC, SMTC, SPOT, WMG, ENPH, GFI, TSEM, TSLA, AKRO, WOOF, FRC, UBS, BA, RIO, ARRY, BBY, GOOGL
My Trade Idea: NKE
In my analysis, NKE earnings beat but stock pulled back. Analysts targets raised with targets 142-156. Premarket 123. Long targets 125, 130. Below 120, potential fade. Note FOMC risk today after 14:00 ET.