Swing Trade Idea – March 24, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative equity global set-up
•Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals
•Yields: Yields are lower
•Currencies: US $ +.67%; $Yen +.48%
News: USA: Durable goods at 8:30 ET, Bullard 9:30 ET, PMIs 9:45 ET Europe: MFG PMI < 50 and falling, services > 50 and rising Canada: Retail sales 8:30 ET Japan: CPI 3.1% Y/Y Mfg PMI 48.6 vs 48.2
•Stocks SQ -2.6% Short Seller attack CS -5.4%,l UBS -4% DOJ probing DB -11%, BAC -2.7%, C -2.7%, FRC -4.2% banking weakness continues in Europe and USA. DB Credit Default Swaps are the latest concern;
Positive drug trial results Usual Suspects: AAPL -.5%, GOOG -.7, NVDA -1%, TSLA +1%, AMD -.9%, META +.6%
•General: Leading: Bonds, US$ Lagging: Energy, financials, spec tech
Overview: USA falling since European open as financial concerns grow. SPY 390.6 has support of 390, 388, 385, and 380 with the resistance of 392, 395, and 400. SPY expected move +/- 3.4. QQQ 308 with resistance of 310, and 315 with support of 306, 305, and 300. QQQ expected move +/-3.2. Market is positioned risk-off with yields lower, US$ and Yen are higher. VIX futures are inverted signaling near term risk. Global financial are the risk concern leading to small caps and S&P leading to downside. SPY 390 key bull/bear line today. Look for reaction to Bullard 930 who may try to calm markets and PMIs 9:45 ET. Watch the FAANGMT stocks which are so far holding up the indices.
Stocks to watch META, BIDU, SQ, AAPL, NVDA, DB, JPM, BAC, HAL Spec Names AXNX
Pre-800ET
Earnings
Indices TLT, UUP, USO, XOP, XLE, KRE, XLF, /BTC, EFA, ARKK, IWM, EWZ, /6E, EEM, KWEB, DIA
S&P500 META, FRC, INCY, APA, HAL, MRO, C, FITB, FANG, XOM, SLB, VLO, MTB, JPM, BAC, HBAN, CVX
IWM AXNX, TRUP, NOG, FRO, PBF, CPE, SM, PTEN, OII, ESTE, MTDR, MUR, TDW, LBRT, DK, MSTR
WSB COIN, CLF, MSTR, UPST, BA, GME, F, BABA, BA
Movers BIDU, AXNX, RBLX, PAAS, UBS, TRUP, SHEL, EURN, HSBC, BP, ING, GSK, FRC, PUK, ABB, EQNR, TS, FMS, CPE, NOG, ME, HAL, MRO, C, PBF, LI, FITB
My Trade Idea: SPY
IS&P500 weak premarket on financials concerns. 390 is a key bull/bear level. In my analysis, there is potential of 385, and 380 on a break below and 395, and 400 on a move above. Likely will see a bounce on open and then direction for morning will be established. PMI 9:45 ET important data release.