Swing Trade Idea – March 31, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
•Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
•Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals
•Yields: Yields are lower
•Currencies: US $ +.3%; $Yen .56%
News: USA: PCE
at 8:30 ET; Chicago PMI at 9:45 ET; UofM consumer sentiment 10:00 ET; FOMC
Williams at 15:05 ET; China: Mfg PMI 51.9 vs 51.6, Non-Mfg PMI 58.2; Japan:
Ind Prod m/m 4.5% vs 2.8%; Europe: CPI 6.9% y/y vs 7.1%,; Canada:
GDP at 8:30 ET
•Stocks AAP .8% upgrade, BB -2%, ASTS -6.5, RUM +11%, EPS DWAC +11%, Trump
Indicated Usual Suspects: FAANGMT: AMZN -.03%, TSLA
+0.32%, AAPL -.09%, MSFT -.12%, NVDA -.57%, META -.47%
•General: Leading: Oil, financials, biotech, small caps, and bonds Lagging: China Internet, euro
Overview: USA indices muted ahead of USA PCE print. SPY 404.3 with support of 402.2, 400, and 395 has resistance of 405. SPY expected move +/- 2.5. QQQ 315.6 with resistance of 317, and 320 and support 315, 310, and 305. QQQ expected move +/-2.5. Premarket volume is light and S&P IV is 2x Monday due to uncertainty. SPX options positioned for 4065-4000. Post-PCE IV should drop, which will enhance up moves and mitigate down moves. Potential for a reversal day for leading stocks as calls expire (e.g. NVDA) and lagging as puts expire (e.g. BAC). Note UofM 10:00 ET and Williams 1505 potentially market moving. JPM collar rolling today can cause market glitches if not managed well
Stocks to watch AAP, TSLA, NFLX, BAC, NVDA, META Spec Names RUN, FRC
Pre-800ET
Earnings AEHR, ASTS, BB, RUM
Indices USO, IWM, UUP, TLT, KWEB, euro, bitcoin
S&P500 FRC, AAP, GNRC
IWM EYE, RNA
WSB PLUG, NIO
Movers WB, SJR, VIPS, IBN, UBS, EYE, BUD, INFY, BILI, GNRC, XPEV, NIO, AEHR, EURN, FUTU, BIDU
My Trade Idea: BAC
Banks have been slammed. In my opinion there is a potential for bounce a into the end of quarter options expiration as puts expire and shorts close their books. Counter trend trade idea with long > 28.53 and targets 29 and 30 in short term