Swing Trade Idea – May 16, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
•Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields are lower
· Currencies: US $ -.04%
· News: USA: Retail sales at 8:30 ET; FOMC Barr at 10:00 ET, Williams 12:15 ET, Goolsbee 14:30 ET Europe: German economic sentiment -10.7 vs -5.3 China: Industrial production and sales below expectations
· Stocks HZNP FTC blocking AMGN acquisition; impacting PFE acq of SGEN and hence biotech; HD Declining earnings and revenue impacting LOW; COF Buffet took position; 13Fs are out from Tepper, Druckenmiller, Burry
· General: Leading: VXX, KRE, TLT Lagging: XBI, bitcoin, KWEB, GDX, IBB, IWM ,GLD, EEM
· Overview: USA SPY 413.0 displays support 412.35, 410, and 405 with resistance at 415, and 417.3. SPY expected move +/- 1.8. QQQ 326 with resistance 330, 328 displays support of 325, 320, 316, and 315. QQQ expected move +/- 1.9. Macro setup is neutral with yields and US$ flat and global equities flattish. Retail sales will be market moving as may the numerous FOMC speakers with Williams 1215 the most important. Yesterday’s speaker maintained the stance of no rate cuts this week. Traders have continued to sell rips (buy puts) and buy dips (sell puts) so watch the ranges. Expecting an increase in volatility Wed and into Friday Opex.
· Stocks to watch: WAL, COF, BIDU, EXPE, HD, LOW, IBB, GLD
Spec Names VKTX
Pre-800ET
Earnings CBAY, LAC, XP, BIDU, HD, MNSO, ONON, SE, VOD
Indices VXX, KRE, TLT, XBI, bitcoin, KWEB, GDX, IBB, IWM, GLD, EEM, XLY, XLB, DIA, XLE, XLF, EFA, XLP
S&P500 COF, EXPE, HPQ, RCL, HD, LOW, FCX, ETSY, TGT
IWM FRO, APLS, TGTX, NOG, NEO, RXDX, RIOT, CPRX, KDNY, DNLI, NNOX
WSB COIN, RIOT
Movers VKTX, COF, WAL, FRO, BTI, BIDU, RCL, HZNP, FUTU, SE, AGL, VOD, APLS, SGEN, TGTX, HD, BILI, RIOT, LOW, FCX, ONON, COIN
Trade Idea: NU
NU is a Brazilean fintech. In my opinion, Long idea with catalysts earnings beat and Buffet investment. Premarket high 6.64 can be used for momentum long or pullback >= 6.3. Calls at 6.5 and 7 can lead to a squeeze to 7 and potentially 8. NU traded 12 after IPO. Caveat: risky stock!