Swing Trade Idea – June 5, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Underlined text – higher volume premarket
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
•Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields are higher
· Currencies: US $ +.32%
· News: USA: Services PMI at 945ET China: Caixin services PMI 57.1 beat Europe:Services PMI 55.1 missed; PPI m/m -3.2% falling; Lagard at 9:00 ET; SA cut production boosting oil but bounce being sold
· Stocks PANW added to S&P500, DISH dropped; AAPL announcing VR headset, developer conference today; TSLA China deliveries
· General: Leading: Energy Volatility Commodities Lagging: Bitcoin Semis Gold_Miners Europe China_Internet
· Overview: Global pause day post last weeks squeeze. USA SPY 427.8 displays support of 427, 425, and 420 with resistance at 430. SPY expected move +/- 2.1. QQQ 354 with resistance of 355 and displays support of 353, 350, and 34 . QQQ expected move +/- 2.5. Macro set-up is negative with yield and US$ higher and global equity neutral. AI meme stocks appear to be taking a breather premarket. Market support being passed to AAPL and TSLA premarket while semis (NVDA, AMD) catch their breath. Energy may get some short squeeze action with the Saudi cut but suspicious as pop was sold and all of OPEC+ are not joining in. PANW may get a bit more of a run on the S&P500 addition but already extended.
· Stocks to watch: PANW, AAPL, TSLA, DVN, NVDA, AMD, DISH Spec Names AI, RIOT, DAWN, IMGN, DO
Pre-800ET
Earnings
Indices USO, XOP, XLE, VXX, DBC, DIA, /btc, SOXX, GDX, SMH, FEZ, KWEB, EEM, IWM, QQQ
S&P500 DVN, APA, FANG, OXY, MRO, TSLA, EPAM, AMD, DG, ADBE
IWM DAWN, IMGN, DO, CPE, AI, RCUS, RIOT, MARA, FRO, NNOX, SMCI
WSB TSLA, NET, AI, RIOT, AMD, COIN
Movers DAWN, IMGN, PANW, DVN, FHN, MRO, OXY, PINS, ZI, ZOM, TSLA, VALE, AMD, NET, ABNB, AI, RIOT, TSM, AMD
Trade Idea: AAPL
In my opinion, AAPL in play with the developers conference today and the announcement of the VR headset. QQQ is weak premarket and AAPL may be used to prop indices. In my analysis, stock is extended so potential for pullback at open. Key support levels are 182.5 and 180 where bounces can be bought. Alternate thesis is a negative reaction to developers conference (sell the news) and < 180 can be a fade idea.