Swing Trade Idea – June 23, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Underlined text – higher volume premarket
· Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields are lower
· Currencies: US $+.57%
· News: USA: PMI at 9:45 ET EUR: MFG PMI 43.6 Services PMI 52.4 below expectations Japan: MFG PMI 49.8 miss
·
Stocks KMX +6% EPS beat lower exp. AMZN -.23% Top FAANGMT
AFRM
+1.0% Upgrade W +1.7% Upgrade
GSK
+4.5% Zantac resolution IONQ +8.7% Increase
forecast
· General: Leading: VXX, UUP, GLD Lagging: EFA China_Internet Emerging_Markets Oil
· Overview: USA SPY 434.2 displays support of 433, and 430 and resistance at 435, and 445. SPY expected move +/- 1.8. QQQ 363.6 with resistance 365 370 and displays support of 360. QQQ expected move +/- 2.4. Classic risk-off set up with US$ stronger and yields lower. Catalysts are weak European and Japanese PMIs which raise the recession spectre. USA PMI at 945ET will be of greater importance as may reinforce the narrative. Key levels SPY 433 QQQ 360. Watch US$ as the key indicator, reversal of the uptrend will be a signal that markets may reverse. Russell2000 is the weakest index and may lead in either direction
· Stocks to watch KMX, GSK, AMZN, AMD, IWM, SBUX Spec Names IONQ, DNUT, PLTR
Pre-800ET
Earnings KMX
Indices VXX, UUP, GLD, EFA, KWEB, EEM, DBC, USO, ARKK, SMH, KRE, QQQ
S&P500 KMX, MMM, VTR, VTRS, GE, FCX, SBUX, ENPH, ACN, AAL, LUV, ON, DAL, MRNA, AMAT, MRO
IWM DNUT, OSTK, CELH, FRO, NE, CPE, TWO
WSB BA, TSLA, PLTR, UPST, AI, NVDA, AFRM
Movers GSK, KMX, MMM, DNUT, W, OSTK, XPEV, FRO, STM, VTRS, EQNR, JD, GE, LI, PDD, DB, MT, PLTR, SHOP, TSM
Trade Idea: TSLA
TSLA options traders are positioned long into today’s expiration which is a risk if the stock cannot move higher early in trading. Below 260 targets are 257.5, 255, 250. Above 263, targets are 265 and 270. Expected move for the day is +/- 5.8