Swing Trade Idea – June 29, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Underlined text – higher volume premarket
· Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Mild positive equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields are higher Currencies: USA -.04%
· News: USA Final GDP q/q, UE claims at 8:30 ET; Pending home sales at 10:00 ET; China: PMI tonight
· Stocks MU +2% Lost $ but AI:) OSTK +8.5% continuation BB +12% earnings preannounce BANKS large all pass stress tests AI Euphoria continues AI, U, PATH, NVDA, AMD
· General: Leading: /btc, KRE, ARKK, XLF, SOXX Lagging: KWEB, LIT EEM
· Overview: USA SPY 437.7 displays support of 435 and resistance at 440. SPY expected move +/- 1.8. QQQ 366 with resistance at 366.8, 370 and displays support of 365. And 362 . QQQ expected move +/- 2.4. SPX 4320 is a potential magnet with JPM collar roll Friday. USA indices rose at 3:00 ET with a rise in Euro&Yen that may be reversing into the open. Macro setup is mixed with yields higher and US$ slightly lower. Banks will be in focus after the stress test pass and there will be a potential for buybacks/div raises and EPS reports due in 2 weeks with caveat that inverted yield curve remains negative. MU report was better than expected and IMO not positive however forward comments re:AI are adding juice to the space and to semi stocks which were hit yesterday. EOM/EOQ and window dressing may be a tail wind for the quarterly winners and headwind for the losers. Liquidity has been a tailwind but starting to lose strength into July. GDP and UE claims may affect the current set-up favoring smaller caps and high short interest names.
· Stocks to watch MU, NFLX, SCHW, AMD, NVDA, COIN, OXY, TSLA, JD Spec Names OSTK, BB
Pre-800ET
Earnings MU, PAYX, MKC
Indices /btc, KRE, ARKK, XLF, SOXX, SMH, USO, IPO, XLY, IWM, QQQ, XRT, XLK, KWEB, LIT, EEM
S&P500 MU, SCHW, ZION, AMD, WFC, TSLA, BAC, WDC, OXY, NFLX, JPM, CCL, MS, CFG
IWM OSTK, AI, MARA, RIOT, SMCI, FRO, IONQ
WSB AI, COIN, TIO, AMD, PLTR, TSLA, UPST, NLY
Movers OSTK, STLA, AI, MU, COIN, TS, CVNA, MARA, SMCI, AMD, U, PLTR, BAC, TSLA, UPST, DKNG, AFRM, HOOD, OXY, ROKU, BIDU, JD, BILI, IONQ
Trade Idea: SCHW
SCHW is the top performing large cap financial and the one with the largest exposure to an underwater bond market. In my opinion, potential for continuation into earnings. In my analysis, premarket high 57.43 can be used for a momentum trade or pullback >=57