Swing Trade Idea – July 28, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Underlined text – higher volume premarket
Market Setup- Pre-730ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields are lower Currencies: USA -.35%
· News: USA: PCE at 8:30 ET; UofM Sentiment 10:00 ET CDN: GDP 8:30 JP: Potential loosening of monetary policy
· Stocks: Earnings: INTC 6%, SKX +5%, ROKU +9.4%, MDLZ +2.7%, PG +1.6%, ENPH -15%, F -1%
· General: Leading: KWEB, ARKK, EEM, XPH, SOXX, EWZ, GDX Lagging: VXX, UUP, TAN, XLE
·
Overview: USA SPY 455.2 displays support of 455 452, 450, 448, 445, 440,
with resistance at 460. SPY expected move +/- 2.6. QQQ 380.4 with
resistance 385, 390 and displays support of 375, and 370. QQQ expected
move +/- 2.9. Macro setup is bullish with US$ lower and yields lower
after hiccup Thurs on report that BOJ may change yield control limit but no big
change occurred. Equities have risen since Thur afternoon into PCE report which
will be market moving. Consumer sentiment at 10am will also be market moving.
Opex today and a combination of shorts/puts Thurs and a inline or lower PCE
print can lead to a sharp rise, which futures are front running. SPY 455 and
QQQ 380 are bull bear lines. INTC earnings and mention of AI:) has bulls
stampeding into AI stocks and semis. China stocks are the top performers.
Solars are a mixed bag with FSLR (high short interest) strong and ENPH crushed
(bounce or continuation)
· Stocks to watch INTC, META, AMZN, NVDA, ENPH, JNPR Spec Names RIVN, NIO, IONQ, OSTK, TUP
Pre-800ET
Earnings COUR, FSLR, ROKU, INTC, SIMO, AZN, SKX, X,
PG, MDLZ, DXCM, QS, ENPH, JNPR, DECK, F, BYD, AVTR, XOM
Indices KWEB, ARKK, EEM, XPH, SOXX, EWZ, GDX, XBI, QQQ, VXX, UUP, TAN, XLE
S&P500 FSLR, INTC, DXCM, MDLZ, KLAC, AMD, QCOM, DLR, PG, NVDA, ON, AMZN, ENPH, JNPR, SEDG, CSCO, F
IWM RETA, COUR, IONQ, RXRX, AI, RIOT, MARA, CROX, ENVX
WSB NIO, PLTR, BABA, AFRM, UPST, AI, RIVN, RIOT, AMD, COIN, NVDA, PLUG, AMZN, UBER, TSLA, F
Movers RETA, COUR, FSLR, ROKU, BILI, EDU, XPEV, INTC, SIMO, AZN, LI, BEKE, NIO, PLTR, QS, JD, TTD, IONQ, AI, U, ENPH, SEDG, CSCO
Trade Idea: ARKK
In my opinion, ARKK is a way to trade spec tech assuming market stays risk on (Casino open). Premarket high 48.1 with target above 48.5 and 49. Opex day today so may leak later in the afternoon if stalls. High open interest is 50 for today expiration META has been squeezed above the expected move which was 320. Premarket high 330 corresponds to a high call open interest level. Gamma squeeze potential above 330 towards 335 and 340. Fades > 220 are likely buyable. If price < 220 would be a concern that squeeze is over and would be a fade.