Swing Trade Idea – August 8, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Underlined text – higher volume premarket
Market Setup- Pre-730ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields are lower Currencies: USA +.62%
· News: China: Import/Export data sharply lower raising global economic concerns. Impacting equities and commodities. USA: Moodys downgraded some USA regional banks
· Stocks: Earnings: LLY +8.5%, CHGG +20%, NYT +3.5%, IFF -20%, DDOG -17%, BYND -16%, UPS -5%, I -3.8%, AYX -21%, PLTR -2%, TSLA -1.5 CFO departed
· General: Leading: VXX, TLT, /btc, UUP, XLV Lagging: KRE, USO, KWEB, EWZ, FDN, EEM, ARKK, IGV, XLF, IWM, EFA
· Overview: USA SPY 447.5 displays support of 446, 445, 440 and with resistance at 450 452 455 and 460. SPY expected move +/- 1.9 QQQ 372.2 with resistance at 375, 380 and displays support of 371.5 370 and 365. QQQ expected move +/- 2.1. Indices are negative gamma with macro set-up negative with yields and US$ higher. S&P500 risk of pullback to 445, 440 while below 450. Double whammy of regional bank downgrades and weak China data is weighing on markets and with negative gamma, hitting small caps the hardest. Potential for trend day if overnight breaks but short squeeze also possible
· Stocks to watch NVO, LLY, AMGN, TLT, TLT, AMZN, AMD Spec Names VKTX, CHGG
Pre-800ET
Earnings LLY, PARA, AMGN, IFF, UPS
Indices VXX, TLT, /btc, UUP, XLV, KRE, USO, KWEB, EWZ, FDN, EEM, ARKK, IGV, XLF, IWM, EFA, GDX
S&P500 LLY, PARA, AMGN, IFF, UPS, CTRA, FCX, KEY, DEVN, TFC, TSLA, ENPH, AMZN, AMD, AAL
IWM CHGG, CARG, TDS, USM, MARA, RIOT, IONQ, AI, FSLY, RXRX, BE, FRO, ENVX, APLS, SMCI, SAGE
WSB CHGG, TDS, USM, CARG, IONQ, AI, FSLY, ENVX, SMCI, APLS, LTHM, BE, RXRX
Movers CHGG, NVO, VKTX, TDS, CARG, LLY, USM, NYT, PARA, AMGN, AYX, IFF, DDOG, RNG, MRVI, MDB, SNOW, UPST, UPS, IONQ, LI, BILI, NET, AFRM, PDD, CFLT, FSLY, EDU, PLTR, FCX
Trade Idea: AMGN
In my opinion, AMGN is in play after earnings beat and outlook
increase. Stock is extended so this is a momentum trade hence risky. 260 is the
pivot, above can lead to higher levels. Pullback buy is safer with price >
252. In my analysis, LLY and NVO are two other drug names in play today.