Swing Trade Idea – August 17, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Underlined text – higher volume premarket
Market Setup- Pre-7:30 ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields are higher Currencies: USA -.12%
· News: USA: UE claims; Philly Fed at 8:30 ET JPN: Machine orders missed but growing China: State banks selling US$ for Yuan
· Stocks: Earnings: CSCO +2%, WMT +1%, BILI +7%, SNPS +1.4%, WOLF -16%, GFI -11%
·
Overview: USA SPY 441 displays support of 440 and with resistance at 445
450 and 452. SPY expected move +/- 2.5 QQQ 366.3 with resistance at0 370,
375, 380 and displays support of 365. QQQ expected move +/- 3. USA indices are
bouncing premarket after the FOMC minutes drop with UE claims still ahead.
Macro set-up is murky with long term yields continuing to rise but some
softening in the US$ potentially driven by China selling US$ and buying Yuan.
SPX 4400 / SPY 440 are key levels into Fri Opex as large put positions can lead
to a larger move lower. The US$ moving lower premarket is providing a boost to
oversold commodities e.g. AA, TECK, MP. Small caps are the index leader and
AMZN and NVDA are leading the FAANGMT. China is the strongest sector ETF –
short squeeze or reaction to the Yuan intervention. Indices are negative gamma
which leads to large moves in either direction, so take care today!
· Stocks to watch CSCO, AMZN, NVDA, WMT, FCX, RIO
Spec Names IONQ, BILI
Pre-800ET
Earnings BILI, CSCO, WMT, WOLF, TPR,
GFI
Indices KWEB, USO, EEM, XLE, DBC, XOP, SMH, IWM, XLB, EWZ, XLF, /btc, vxx, TLT, GDX
S&P500 CSCO, ADBE, WMT, FCX, TPR, CVS
IWM IONQ, RIOT, MARA
WSB NIO, BABA, RIOT
Movers BILI, XPEV, NIO, PHG, LI, BABA, RIO, FUTU, MT, CSCO, BHP, IONQ, VALE, ADBE, WMT, FCX, HE, WOLF, GFI, CVS, RIOT, MARA, AU, COIN
Trade Idea: AMZN
In my opinion, AMZN is the strongest premarket of the large cap
tech. Bouncing premarket with the market. Potential day trade with potential
targets 137.3 and 139. Premarket high 136.4 and premarket low 134.7. Can look
for a pullback > 135.5. Note market has been weak so caution warranted