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  • Swing Trade Idea – August 17, 2023

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ‘div’ – dividend 

    ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    Underlined text – higher volume premarket

     

    Market Setup- Pre-7:30 ET 

     Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral  equity global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: Yields are higher Currencies:  USA -.12% 

    ·         News: USA: UE claims; Philly Fed at 8:30 ET JPN: Machine orders missed but growing China: State banks selling US$ for Yuan

    ·         Stocks: Earnings: CSCO +2%, WMT +1%, BILI +7%, SNPS +1.4%, WOLF -16%, GFI -11% 

    ·         Overview: USA SPY 441 displays support of 440 and with resistance at 445 450 and 452. SPY expected move +/- 2.5  QQQ 366.3 with resistance at0 370, 375, 380 and displays support of 365. QQQ expected move +/- 3. USA indices are bouncing premarket after the FOMC minutes drop with UE claims still ahead. Macro set-up is murky with long term yields continuing to rise but some softening in the US$ potentially driven by China selling US$ and buying Yuan. SPX 4400 / SPY 440 are key levels into Fri Opex as large put positions can lead to a larger move lower. The US$ moving lower premarket is providing a boost to oversold commodities e.g. AA, TECK, MP. Small caps are the index leader and AMZN and NVDA are leading the FAANGMT. China is the strongest sector ETF – short squeeze or reaction to the Yuan intervention. Indices are negative gamma which leads to large moves in either direction, so take care today!


    ·         Stocks to watch  CSCO, AMZN, NVDA, WMT, FCX, RIO    

    Spec Names IONQ, BILI

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings BILI, CSCO, WMT, WOLF, TPR, GFI

    Indices  KWEB, USO, EEM, XLE, DBC, XOP, SMH, IWM, XLB, EWZ, XLF, /btc, vxx, TLT, GDX

    S&P500 CSCO, ADBE, WMT, FCX, TPR, CVS

    IWM IONQ, RIOT, MARA

    WSB NIO, BABA, RIOT

    Movers BILI, XPEV, NIO, PHG, LI, BABA, RIO, FUTU, MT, CSCO, BHP, IONQ, VALE, ADBE, WMT, FCX, HE, WOLF, GFI, CVS, RIOT, MARA, AU, COIN



    Trade Idea: AMZN
    In my opinion, AMZN is the strongest premarket of the large cap tech. Bouncing premarket with the market. Potential day trade with potential targets 137.3 and 139. Premarket high 136.4 and premarket low 134.7. Can look for a pullback > 135.5. Note market has been weak so caution warranted

     

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