Swing Trade Idea – August 21, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Underlined text – higher volume premarket
Market Setup- Pre-7:30 ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields are higher Currencies: USA -.18%
· News: Europe: German PPI -1.1% m/m
· Stocks: Earnings: PANW +12% FRI earnings, up on no disaster XPEV +5.7% upgrades VMW + 5.6% British regulator approved AVGO acquisition
·
Overview: USA SPY 438.5 displays support of 435 and
resistance of 440, 445. SPY is expected to move +/- 2.7, and QQQ 360.8 shows
resistance at 361.3, 362.5, and 365 with support at 356.9 and 355. QQQ is
expected to move +/- 3. Risk-on setup with oversold equities bouncing
premarket. Macro is counter intuitive with long yields sharply higher (bearish)
and US$ lower (bullish). I am looking for either yields or the equities
to reverse as short covering and put closure following. Opex is likely the
equity driver but during premarket the momentum is higher. SPY darkpool sellers
are greater than 439.6 and buyers at 436 and 436.5; QQQ, DP, buyers at 356.9
and sellers more than 360.5, so take care as price reaches the sell bands. PANW
earnings are juicing the oversold security names (FTNT, CRWD, and ZS); FAANGMT
lead by TSLA and NVDA (earnings week), Spec tech (ARKK) AI, IONQ, UPST, and
energy names are the strongest sectors. Again, my spidey senses are alert to
the long yield increase so caution warranted
· Stocks to watch PANW, FTNT, TSLA, NVDA, AMD, XPEV, EQNR, GNRC, REGN, TLT Spec Names IONQ, AI, XPEV, UPST
Pre-800ET
Earnings PANW
Indices USO, HACK, ARKK, XLY, XLE, XOP, SOXX, QQQ, EFA, SMH, DBC, VXX, TLT, /btc, SPLV, UUP
S&P500 PANW, TSLA, NVDA, FTNT, GNRC, AMD, CCL, DVN, JNJ
IWM ESTE, IONQ, AI, SMCI, DHT, RIOT, MARA
WSB TSLA, NVDA, AI, UPST, NIO, PLTR, AFRM, RIVN, AMD, CLF, NET
Movers PANW, ESTE, VMW, XPEV, CRWD, TSLA, S, IONQ, NVDA, EQNR, STLA, AI, BP, NIO, UPST, KVUESNOW, U, ZTO, JNJ, AU
Trade Idea: PANW
In my opinion, PANW has moved greater than expected with its Friday
EPS release. Shorts are covering with a premarket high of 236.19. Potential
momentum long to 240 and 245. A pullback of more than 235 may be used for a
long. A move below 230 could indicate that the move is being sold. Other names
moving FTNT, ZS, CRWD, CSCO.