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Date: Aug. 22, 2023 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

‘div’ – dividend 

‘m/m’ – month over month

‘y/y’ – year over year

‘Inven’ – inventories

‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

Underlined text – higher volume premarket

Market Setup- Pre-7:30 ET 

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals 

·         Yields: Yields are lower Currencies:  USA -.02% 

·         News: USA: Home Sales, Richmond mfg 10ET; FED speakers 1430 ET JPN: CPI 3.3% vs 2.9% China: liquidity injection

·         Stocks: Earnings: FN+20% BIDU +4% LOW +2.8% ZM +1.5% DKS -18% BJ -2% M -0.4% ATVI selling stream rights to help deal go through.

·         Overview: USA SPY 441.9 has a support level of 439 and resistance 442.9 and 445 . SPY expected move +/- 2.3 and QQQ 366.9 displays a resistance of 367 and 368 with support at 363 and 360. QQQ is expected to move +/- 3. Risk-on setup again after a large move by QQQ led by NVDA and TSLA which puts the QQQ above the expected move for the week, hence extended. SPY and QQQ are now at levels where dark pool sellers were active last week so we will need to see if sellers are done or return. Sharp moves lower in long yields and yet more China stimulus is providing a lift to the most speculative stocks along with metals. BIDU and FN earnings beats with the magical word AI repeated is lifting the AI stocks. LOW, DKS, BJ. M are not indicating a strong retail market but LOW is higher by being less bad. Premarket looks like a continuation of the post-Opex relief rally ahead of NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole with wonder if the large dark pool sellers are gone or waiting.

·         Stocks to watch: MSFT, TSLA, NVDA, FN, DKS, NKE Spec Names IONQ, AI, UPST, NIO 

Pre-8:00ET
Earnings BHP, ZM, LOW, MDT, BIDU, DKS, IQ, M, CSIQ, GDS

Indices  KWEB, ARKK, XLY, SMH, faangmt, QQQ, EFA, GDX, XLK, TLT, IWM, XLB, VXX, USO

S&P500 TSLA, LOW, NVDA, META, ATVI, MSFT, NKE, M

IWM IONQ, AI, RIOT, SMCI, MARA, SDGR, ASO, FL, CROX 

WSB NIO, TSLA, AI, COIN, UPST, RIOT, PLTR, NVDA, HOOD, BABA, NET, RIVN, ASO

Movers MNSO, NIO, TSLA, APP, BIDU, BILI, IONQ, XPEV, AI, ASML, PDD, LOW, MT, FUTU, UPST, COIN, RIOT, RIO, CSIQ, ATVI, DKS, ASO, PBR, BJ, FL

Trade Idea: NVDA
In my opinion, NVDA is a hopelessly overbought stock squeezing into earnings Wed.  Call buyers are targeting $500. Option strikes are every $2.5 with major increments of $5. Price > $480 can be used for a momentum long or pullback >= $475 or $470. AMD is a poor man’s equivalent to trading NVDA before Wed’s River card. Shorts are covered with a premarket high of $236.19. Potential momentum long move to $240 and $245. A pullback of more than $235 may be used for a long move. A move below $230 could indicate that the move is being sold. Other names moving include FTNT, ZS, CRWD, CSCO.