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Date: Aug. 23, 2023 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

‘div’ – dividend 

‘m/m’ – month over month

‘y/y’ – year over year

‘Inven’ – inventories

‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

Underlined text – higher volume premarket

Market Setup- Pre-7:30 ET 

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral Defensive  equity global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals 

·         Yields: Yields lower Currencies:  USA +39% 

·         News: USA: Flas mfg, Services PMI 945ET; New home sales 10ET  EUR&UK: Flash MFG, Services PMI < 50 declining JPN: Flash mfg PMI 49.7 CDN: Retail sales 830ET

·         Stocks: Earnings: URBN +4% DY +2.3% FL -31% ADI -7% BBWI -2.8% PTON -25% Other movers AMC -20% VFS -15% APLS +28% RCUS +33% accidental release of data by Roche
Overview: The USA, SPY was at 438.9  and displays a support at 437.5 435 and resistance  at 442.9 445 . SPY is expected to move +/- 2.5 . QQQ is at 363.9 with resistance of 367 368  and support  at 363 360 . QQQ is expected to move +/- 3.  Market positioning is showing neutral defensive with yields lower, US$ & Yen higher and US equities marginally higher. Weaker than expected, European PMI data is weighing on Oil. The ADI weak forecast is weighing on broad semis (MCHP ON STM) but NVDA is still bid ahead of earnings. FL earnings are weighing on footwear (NKE CROX) and may provide a dip buy in the near term. USA PMI at 945ET will be market moving and interesting since Europe, UK, Japan are all reporting contraction data.  APLS and RCUS news is providing a boost to the beaten down biotech sector. Note that MRNA has found new life. Metals continue to bounce maybe in hope of a China turn or short covering. SPY at 440 and QQQ at 365 show bull/bear lines while market waits for NVDA tonight.

·         Stocks to watch: NVDA; URBN; GILD; SLV; TSLA FL  

·         Spec Names: RCUS; APLS; GRAB 

Pre-800ET
Earnings: TOL; URBN; LZB;  AAP; ADI; GRAB; WSM; BBWI;

LANC; KSS; PTON; FL; ANF

Indices:  TLT; KWEB; /btc; EEM; XLU; EWZ; XBI; faangmt; EFA; XLV; GLD; USO; vxx; SOXX; XLE; SMH

S&P500: BF/B; GILD; TMO; AAP; MRK; EXC; ETSY; AWK; AVY; NEM; MSFT; PYPL; ADI; NKE; BBWI; MCHP; ON; TSLA; NXPI; TXN; VFC;

IWM: RCUS; APLS; ANF; URBN; AEO; FRO; CROX; FL;

WSB: NIO; ASO; TSLA;

Movers: RCUS; APLS; ANF; URBN; MANU; AEO; KSS; GILD; GFI; AAP; PBR; MRK; BHP; TSM; BIDU; FL; ADI; NKE; CROX; ON; BBWI; MCHP; NXPI; TSLA;

Trade Idea: Gold
In my opinion, Gold and Silver and other metals are signaling that perhaps the US$ has peaked. Potentially driven by weaker global PMI which is reducing inflation expectations and hence lower yields. GLD top of risk range is 180. Support 176. Ideally look for a pullback since very extended. NEM and GFI are alternate ways to trade gold. Note: Jackson Hole risk Friday