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  • Swing Trade Idea – August 24, 2023

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ‘div’ – dividend 

    ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    Underlined text – higher volume premarket

     

    Market Setup- Pre-7:30 ET 

     

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Mild positive  equity global set-up

    ·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals 

    ·       Yields: Yields higher Currencies:  USA +24% 

    ·       News: USA: UE claims, durable goods 830ET; Jackson Hole  UK: UK retail sales fell at fastest rate in 30m
    Stocks:
    Earnings:
    NVDA +7% SNOW +3.4% ADSK +6.6% SPLK +13% FRO +1.6%  DLTR -5.8%  Other movers BA -2% SPR -7% Spirit reported 737 fuselage issues again
    Overview: USA SPY 445.3 shows support of 442 and 440 with resistance of 445.8. SPY is expected to move +/- 2.7. QQQ 373.4 displays resistance of 375 and 380 with support at 369 . QQQ expected move +/- 4.3.  Macro set-up is negative with yields and US$ moving higher. NVDA revenue results has spurred a mad dash into semis and AI names and has awakened the interest in spec tech across the board. NVDA revenue is driven by large VC investments in AI who are price agnostic and hence the dichotomy between other semi companies cutting guidance. In short term the semi guide downs are irrelevant. QQQ is the leading USA index with DJIA and IWM in the red. We may see a return to divergent markets where tech related names can move higher while others languish. QQQ is above the expected move for the week and SPY is at the top hence statistically more likely to stall/pullback but potential for a 2 standard deviation move as call walls are breached. UE claims and durable goods  are potential market movers but the big event is Powell tomorrow with potential for some Jackson Hole news intraday.

    ·       Stocks to watch NVDA, SNOW, ADSK, AAPL, DLTR Spec Names SMCI, PLTR 

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings NVDA, RY, TD, SNOW, ADSK, SPLK, DLTR, FUTU, FRO, BURL, GES

    Indices: SMH, SOXX, KWEB, XLK, faangmt, QQQ, IGV, ARKK, FDN, EEM, HACK, VXX, /btc, TLT, XLP, XLB, IWM

    S&P500 NVDA, ADSK, ANET, AVGO, MU, AMAT, LRCX, AMD, META, MSFT, TSLA, ON, ORCL, GOOGL, SNPS, ADBE, GEHC, DLTR, BA, EL

    IWM SMCI, AI, ENVX, IONQ, FRO, RIOT, MARA, SDGR, EXTR, HAIN

    WSB NVDA, AI, PLTR, NET, NIO, UPST, AMD, TSLA, RIOT, RIOT, ORCL, AFRM, BABA, AMZN, COIN, BA

    Movers NVDA, PLTR, TSM, XPEV, IONQ, AMD, NIO, MSFT, TSLA, AMZN, BABA, FUTU




    Trade Idea: Kenvue
    In my opinion, KVUE is a spinoff from JNJ being added to the S&P500. Catalyst for today is Goldman upgrade to $29. KVUE sells products like Tylenol, Bandaids which are staples and less sensitive to the economy. Div yield 3.4%.

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