Swing Trade Idea – August 24, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Underlined text – higher volume premarket
Market Setup- Pre-7:30 ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Mild positive equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields higher Currencies: USA +24%
· News: USA:
UE claims, durable goods 830ET; Jackson Hole UK: UK retail sales
fell at fastest rate in 30m
Stocks: Earnings: NVDA +7% SNOW +3.4% ADSK +6.6% SPLK +13% FRO +1.6% DLTR
-5.8% Other movers BA -2% SPR -7% Spirit reported 737 fuselage
issues again
Overview: USA SPY 445.3 shows support of 442 and 440 with resistance of
445.8. SPY is expected to move +/- 2.7. QQQ 373.4 displays resistance of 375
and 380 with support at 369 . QQQ expected move +/- 4.3. Macro set-up is
negative with yields and US$ moving higher. NVDA revenue results has spurred a
mad dash into semis and AI names and has awakened the interest in spec tech
across the board. NVDA revenue is driven by large VC investments in AI who are
price agnostic and hence the dichotomy between other semi companies cutting
guidance. In short term the semi guide downs are irrelevant. QQQ is the leading
USA index with DJIA and IWM in the red. We may see a return to divergent
markets where tech related names can move higher while others languish. QQQ is
above the expected move for the week and SPY is at the top hence statistically
more likely to stall/pullback but potential for a 2 standard deviation move as
call walls are breached. UE claims and durable goods are potential market
movers but the big event is Powell tomorrow with potential for some Jackson
Hole news intraday.
· Stocks to watch NVDA, SNOW, ADSK, AAPL, DLTR Spec Names SMCI, PLTR
Pre-800ET
Earnings NVDA, RY, TD, SNOW, ADSK, SPLK, DLTR, FUTU, FRO,
BURL, GES
Indices: SMH, SOXX, KWEB, XLK, faangmt, QQQ, IGV, ARKK, FDN, EEM, HACK, VXX, /btc, TLT, XLP, XLB, IWM
S&P500 NVDA, ADSK, ANET, AVGO, MU, AMAT, LRCX, AMD, META, MSFT, TSLA, ON, ORCL, GOOGL, SNPS, ADBE, GEHC, DLTR, BA, EL
IWM SMCI, AI, ENVX, IONQ, FRO, RIOT, MARA, SDGR, EXTR, HAIN
WSB NVDA, AI, PLTR, NET, NIO, UPST, AMD, TSLA, RIOT, RIOT, ORCL, AFRM, BABA, AMZN, COIN, BA
Movers NVDA, PLTR, TSM, XPEV, IONQ, AMD, NIO, MSFT, TSLA, AMZN, BABA, FUTU
Trade Idea: Kenvue
In my opinion, KVUE is a spinoff from JNJ being added to the
S&P500. Catalyst for today is Goldman upgrade to $29. KVUE sells products
like Tylenol, Bandaids which are staples and less sensitive to the economy. Div
yield 3.4%.