Swing Trade Idea – August 25, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Underlined text – higher volume premarket
Market Setup- Pre-7:30 ET
· Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
- Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
- Yields: Yields are higher Currencies: USA +05%
- News: USA: UofM 10ET; Powell 10:04 ET
Jackson Hole; FED Harker, Goolsbee11-2 EUR: German GDP q/q 0%
JPY: Tokyo CPI y/y 2.8% vs 2.9%
Stocks: Earnings: WDAY +3%, ULTA +0.9%, AFRM +8%, GPS +0.7%, HIBB +7.8%, INTU -1%, MRVL -3.3% Other movers
Overview: USA SPY 438.7 support 436.5 435 and resistance of 440. SPY expected to move +/- 2.9. The QQQ 362 with resistance of 363.6 365 and support of 360. I believe that QQQ is expected to move +/- 3.3. Macro set-up is neutral with yields and US$ is unchanged. China provided some more stimulus overnight which is providing a lift to commodities. A rotation into “value” names may be continuing today with energy, financials and hence small caps leading as NVDA and semis lick their wounds. UofM at 10ET may be market moving but the big event is Powell at Jackson hole. Volatility is cranked ahead of Powell and should he be perceived as neutral/dovish to the market it can result in a swift move to the upside as the puts wilt. Converse would be the reaction to a hawkish Powell. SPX 4400 is a major level that needs to be recovered for bulls. SPX 4300 is likely to support if S&P cannot hold the lows. SPX4500 is a target for next week should Powell not kill the market
· Stocks to watch HAS, NFLX, DIS, DVN, BAC, EQNR, MRVL Spec Names AFRM
Pre-800ET
Earnings INTU, WDAY, MRVL, ULTA,
AFRM, GPS
Indices USO, XLE, DBC, EFA, DBC, IWM, ICLN, XLF, XLB, DIA, XLV, VXX, TLT
S&P500 HAS, ULTA, APA, MRO
IWM CRDO, FRO, DOCN, IONQ, SMCI
WSB AFRM, AMC
Movers AFRM, CRDO, FRO, AMC, WDAY, AU, EQNR, BEKE, HAS, XPEV, STLA, ULTA, HE, DOCN, JWN, MRVL, KVUE, SMCI
Trade Idea: IWM
In my opinion, IWM is a potential long idea IF market bounces
post Powell’s speech. Consider long > 184 with first target 185 and then
186. IWM will benefit from a rotation into small cap energy and financials.