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  • Swing Trade Idea – September 1, 2023

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

    •  Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
      • ‘div’ – dividend 
      • ‘m/m’ – month over month
      • ‘y/y’ – year over year
      • ‘Inven’ – inventories
      • ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 
      • +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
      • Underlined text – higher volume premarket

     

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia slight positive equity global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: Yields flat  Currencies:  USA -.03% 

    ·         NewsUSA Non-farm payrolls, UE rate 830ET; Final mfg PMI 945ET; ISM mfg PMI 10ET; EUR Final mfg PMI 43.5 continuing to contract;

    ·          China: Caixin mfg PMI 51 51 > 49 expected
    Stocks:
    Positive Earnings LULU +2.3%, DELL 9.5%, MDB +5%, NTNX +19%, ESTC +14%, S +4.9%
    Negative Earnings AVGO -3.9%, HCP -3.4%, PD -10.8%

    Overview: USA SPY 452.2  with support at 450 and resistance at 455 . SPY expected to move +/- 2.25;  QQQ 378 with resistance of 380 and support at 372 365 360; QQQ expected to move +/- 2.6; Macro set-up is mixed with yields higher and US$ flat ahead of non-farm payrolls.  Non-farm payrolls and UE rate at 830ET will be market moving as will the ISM PMI data at 10ET. China Caixin data indicated expansion, which is opposite of the official govt data but with additional PBOC stimulus, is providing a lift to commodities and China internet stocks (in spite of HK exchange closed). Indices remain extended but in positive gamma which can support markets. Volatility is elevated ahead of non-farm payrolls and should drop post, which will provide a small boost. SPX range based on positioning 4500 – 4560.


    ·         Stocks to watch: LULU, VALE, FCX, META, MRO, AVGO, DG  

    ·         Spec Names: NTNX,  PD

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings: AVGO, VMW, LULU, DELL, MDB, IOT, NTNX, RH, ESTC, HCP, S, PD, 

    Indices:  KWEB, EWZ, DBC, USO, XLE, EEM, GDX, IWM, FDN, XLB, XLF, XLY, VXX, /btc, HYG, TLT, AGG

    S&P500: FCX, HAL, MRO, DVN, FANG, AVGO, WBD, DG

    IWM: BORR, ACHR, CWH, PZZA, GOGL, SMCI, UUUU, NE, LAZR, PD,

    WSB: NIO, AMC, PLUG, BABA, UPST

    Movers: NTNX, ESTC, DELL, BEKE, MDB, S, EQNR, XPEV, SONY, BP, LI, AU, LULU, ACHR, RIO, AA, MT, VALE, PDD, PD, AVGO, UBS, DG, WBD



    Trade Idea: FCX

    Commodities are moving higher with China stimulus and copper is moving higher in spite of indication of global mfg recession. FCX is the go to for copper and in play today. Premarket high of 40.8  can be used for a momentum long or  a pullback > 40.5. Swing targets 42.5 and 45.

     

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