Swing Trade Idea – September 07, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
- Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
- ‘div’ – dividend
- ‘m/m’ – month over month
- ‘y/y’ – year over year
- ‘Inven’ – inventories
- ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
- +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
- Underlined text – higher volume premarket
· Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields lower Currencies: USA +.11%
·
News: USA UE claims 830ET EUR GDP 0.1% q/q China:
Stimulus, lower trade y/y; iPhone ban for govt workers
Stocks: Positive Earnings AEO +0.3%% Negative
Earnings AI -12% DOO -9.7% PLAY 04% Movers AAPL -3% China govt
ban. Note weighs on semi suppliers. Huawei latest phone very competitive with
iPhone TSLA -2.4% NVDA -2%
Overview: USA SPY 444.3 support 444 440 and resistance
450 455 . SPY expected move +/- 1.8 QQQ 371 with resistance
375 and support 370 365 . QQQ expected move +/- 2.6. Story of
the day is the weakness in AAPL due to the Chinese govt ban. This will weigh on
the market cap weighted indices. Semiconductors are weak, especially ones in
the AAPL supply chain: QCOM, SWKS, QRVO, CRUS. News of a TSLA smaller ban is
weighing on the stock. Macro set-up is negative with US$ higher but
yields lower and global equities lower. Indices are negative gamma hence
selling will lead to selling. Bond auction today is yet another risk as USA
treasury selling notes and bonds for the first time since the market fell so
watch yields today. Commodities are reflecting a slowing global economy
following China data. Potential some rotation into utilities, healthcare.
SPX line in the sand 4450 with 4400 potential support if it breaks.
· Stocks to watch TLT, WRK, AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, SWKS, QRVO
· Spec Names PATH, AI
Pre-8:00ET
Earnings PATH, ANCTF, DSGX, AI, AEO, PLAY, TTC, DOO,
SAIC, ABM, GIII, GME
Indices VXX, GLD, TLT, UUP, XLU, XLV, KWEB, SOXX, SMH, XLK, faangmt, LIT, QQQ
S&P500 WRK, ROL, STX, SWKS, AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, MCHP, SPG, ON, QCOM, AMAT, AMD, QRVO, FCX
IWM FRO, TPH, AMKR, AI, LZ, SUM, PLAY, SMCI, TROX, CROX, IONQ, NEOG
WSB AI, BROS, NET, BABA, NVDA, RIVN, NIO, TSLA, PLTR, AMD, AFRM, CLF
Movers CBAY, WRK, PATH, AEO, AMKR, AI, ROL, BHP, SUM, BILI, STM, PDD, STX, PLAY
Trade Idea: AAPL
AAPL is down 3% in premarket following news of a ban for govt workers. AAPL has some support at 177.5 with stronger support at 170 and resistance at 180. Can consider a fade < 177.5 or on failed bounces < 180. Note semi fade is an alternate idea using AAPL as a reference.