Swing Trade Idea – September 14, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
- ‘div’ – dividend
- ‘m/m’ – month over month
- ‘y/y’ – year over year
- ‘Inven’ – inventories
- ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
- +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
- Underlined text – higher volume premarket
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive – pre ECB, PPI, equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields higher Currencies: USA -.02%
·
News: USA: PPI, Retail sales, UE claims 8:30 ET Europe:
IECB rate decision JPY: Machinery Orders -1.1% /m
Stocks: MRNA +4% cutting Covid vaccine production, MTCH +2% JPM
Upgrade, FITB +1.9% Dividend raise, TSLA +1.0% Positive comments, and Indian part
supply + ECB investigating Chinese EV subsidy :)
Overview: USA SPY 448.4 with support at 445, 443, and resistance at 450,
455. SPY expected move +/- 1.9, QQQ 375.9 with resistance at 375, 377,
380, and support at 370, 365. QQQ expected move +/- 2.2. Global indices
are higher ahead of market moving ECB rates decision, USA PPI & Retail
Sales. Premarket equities and commodities are pricing in a weaker US$ but are
not being reflected in the currency market hence potential for reversal once
ECB decision and conference call. SPY and QQQ premarket are at levels
where substantial dark pool sellers have been present hence looking for a
breakout (short cover) or reversal. ARM IPO today is igniting the semi
animal spirits boosting NVDA to the top of the FAANGMT leader board but all are
bid premarket. Major caveat is a lot of data to be reported and selling
rips has been the algo modus operandi so take care on the chase. SPX
expected to trade [4500 – 4450] based on dealer positioning
· Stocks to watch ETSY, FCX, CCL, NVDA, RTX Spec Names ARM, RIOT, MSOS
Pre-800ET
Earnings SMTC
Indices MSOS, KWEB, USO, SLX, SMH, /btc, XLE, XME, XLB, EFA, VXX, TLT, UUP
S&P500 ETSY, FCX, NCLH, CCL, PYPL, SLB, NVDA, MU, OXY, V, HPQ, RTX
IWM ETSY, FCX, NCLH, CCL, PYPL, SLB, NVDA, MU, OXY, V, HPQ, RTX
WSB RIOT, CLF, NIO, UPST, BABA, NVDA, COIN, AU
Movers RIO, BHP, PENN, ETSY, FCX, VALE, AA, BEKE, SMTC, NCLH, RIOT, PDD, COIN, FRO, V, HPQ, RTX, RRIOT, CLF, NIO, UPST, BABA, NVDA, COIN, AU
Trade Idea: AAPL
AAPL is below major support (175) and premarket is weak in spite of overall index strength. Potential fade less than 174 or failed bounces less than or equal to 180. Downside targets 172, 170, 165.