Swing Trade Idea – November 16, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
· Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight negative equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Long Yields higher Currencies: USA +.14%
· News: USA:
UE claims; Philly Fed 830ET; Ind Prod 915ET; EUR: Ind Prod
-1.1% m/m China: Retail sales and Ind Prod above expectations JPN:
GDP q/q -0.5%
Stocks: M +10% DOLE +4.9% WMT -7% PANW
-7.9% CSCO -10.2% SQM -2.9% BABA -8.5% BBWI -1.8% NTES -5% Earnings
reactions
Overview: USA SPY 449 support 450 445 and resistance 452.2
455 SPY expected move +/- 2.53 QQQ 384.8 with resistance
388.6 390 and support 385 380. Slight weakness in global equity
markets with small caps and tech the laggards. Long yields and energy are lower
and US$ higher which is a deflationary / risk-off set-up. WMT comment that
consumers are struggling is negative for consumer discretionary including
AMZN [except M which is short squeezed today]. Weak guidance from CSCO is
negative for JNPR, Arista and suppliers like AVGO. Weak guidance from
PANW is weighing on high flying security stocks like FTNT CRWD ZS. MAG7 needs
to hold up Nasi in face of fundamentals which are deteriorating with MSFT
and AAPL (with no growth) bid. QQQ expected move +/- 3.0. Today daily
expected move levels: SPY (452.2-447.1) QQQ (388.6-382.6), IWM
(182.1-175.4) SPX(4528.1-4477.6).
· Stocks to watch: MSFT AAPL WMT PANW CRWD JD CSCO
· Spec Names: CRSP M
Pre-8:00ET
Earnings CPA MMS M NICE SIEGY WMT PANW NTES
BABA BBWI WSM
Indices MSOS TLT faangmt GLD XLV XLU KWEB IYZ /btc EEM TAN XLP HACK EWZ ARKK USO FDN IWM
S&P500 ALGN CTLT VRTX CSCO WMT PANW JNPR ANET DLTR TGT DG MMM TSLA FTNT CCL GLW AVGO HPQ
IWM GT NTLA ABR SQSP RIOT MARA IONQ BE AI ORA
WSB BABA RIOT UPST
TSLA AFRM AI NET
Movers M NICE CRSP NVO STNE CSCO BABA WMT PANW NTES JD BILI XPEV
GFI FUTU LI AAP PDD BIDU ZS TGT EDU TSLA
Trade Idea: AMZN
AMZN pulled back Wed from oveerbought levels and approaching key level premarket. Put support at 140 can be used as a bull/bear line. Straddle idea with longs over 140 if confirmed with technicals and fade below. Expected daily move 147.6-138.8.