Swing Trade Idea – December 08, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
· Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.53% Currencies: USA +.2%
· News: USA: Nonfarm payrolls 830ET; UofM Consumer Sentiment 10ET JPN: GDP -0,7% y/y EUR: German CPI -0.4% m/m
· Stocks: AVGO -0.03% RH -8% HCP -23% LULU -1.65% Earnings CARR +6% selling security biz to HON; RIOT +2.8% Upgrade QCOM -1% downgrade
· Overview: USA SPY
455.5 displays support of 455 and 450 with resistance of 459 and 460. I expect
the SPY to move +/- 3.22 QQQ 389.2 with resistance 390 394 and support 386.6
385 expected move 3.8. Pre jobs report USA indices are mixed with
QQQ negative and IWM flat. Yields and $USD are higher ahead of the jobs
report which is negative for equities in theory. Jobs report will be market
moving as will consumer sentiment at 10ET. Implied volatility is elevated which
can lead to a bounce should market dip. Caveat is SPY < 455 may lead to a
larger down move with 450 strong support. MAG7 are leading with GOOGL TSLA AMZN
the top 3. MAG7 are pulling back after the strong move Thurs but seeing some
outperformance in spec tech along with bitcoin and energy. Watch the
daily expected move levels. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY
(461.5-455) QQQ (394.2-386,6), IWM (188.3-182.5) SPX(4617.8-4553.4).
Stocks to watch: ALB ARKK/F GOOGL TSLA LULU Spec Names: RIOT HCP
Pre-8:00ET
Earnings DOCU HCP LULU RH AVGO MTN
Indices USO /btc XLE DBC XOP EWZ ICLN IWM ARKF ARKK UUP JETS /KWEB QQQ XLK TLT faangmt XLY
S&P500 CARR ALB FSLR PARA SLB LULU QCOM
IWM RIOT LTHM
MARA TGTX BEAM SHO KBH
Movers CARR RBLX ALB FSLR RIOT PINS SQM CRSP MARA HOOD CXM CVE COIN HCP GTES XPEV
BEAM AU GME LULU LI QCOM
Trade Idea: LULU
LULU beat earnings but provided a weak forecast which led to stock pulling back to the expected move 430 but has bounced to 453. Straddle approach, long 455 and fade below 450.