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  • Swing Trade Idea – December 15, 2023

    Date: Dec 13, 2023 

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Positive equity global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond +1%    Currencies:  USA -.45%

    ·         News:   USA: Empire state mfg 830ET; Ind Production 9:15ET; mfg services PMI 945ET  UK: mfg PMI 46.4 Services 52.1  EUR:  MFG PMI 44.2 services PMI 48.1

    ·          Stocks:   COST +2.6%, LEN -2%, earnings  Solar Squeezing ENPH +5%, RUN +4%, SPWR +3.5%, FSLR +3%
    Overview: USA SPY 471.24  support 470 467 465 and resistance 473 475,     SPY expected move +/- 3.1, QQQ 404.7 with resistance 405 407 410 and support 400, QQQ expected move 3.6. Global equities higher, yields lower is positive but US$ is higher. USA equities are led by China internet, profitless tech, high short interest and sensitivity to long rates [KRE]. MAG7 lagging and led by TSLA and AMZN. Large Opex today which is call dominated which should lead to consolidation in the coming week. Indices and many individual stocks are technically stretched but option flow remains high so momentum can continue until the music stops and the last short has covered. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (473.2-467),  QQQ (407-400), IWM (202.1-195), SPX(4751-4688). 

    Stocks to watch:
    ENPH, MRNA, INTC, GE, ALB, TSLA, LEN

    Spec Names: RUN, CHWY, RIVN  

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings:   COST, LEN

    Indices: TAN, KWEB, ARKK, KRE, IWM, XBI, GDX, SOXX, XLE, ITB, XRT, GLD, /btc, vxx, euro, TLT

    S&P500: ENPH, FSLR, COST, INTC, SEDG, PYPL, NCLH, TSLA, CCL, MU, LEN

    IWM: FRO, ENVX, LMND, AI, NOVA, SNDX, IRT, MARA
    Movers: JD, ENPH, FRO, RIVN, RUN, CHWY, FSLR, BILI, STM, BEKE, COST, INTC, TAL, STLA, RIO, AA, PYPL, PATH,  EDU, LEN, AZN






    Trade Idea: IWM

    IWM  has been very strong post the FOMC meeting but potential risk today’s Opex with calls expiring. Expected daily range is 202-195. Look for dips to buy > 195 and fade > 195 as there is very little volume support below until 192, 186. 

     

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