Swing Trade Idea – December 15, 2023
Date: Dec 13, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond +1% Currencies: USA -.45%
· News: USA: Empire state mfg 830ET; Ind Production 9:15ET; mfg services PMI 945ET UK: mfg PMI 46.4 Services 52.1 EUR: MFG PMI 44.2 services PMI 48.1
·
Stocks: COST
+2.6%, LEN -2%, earnings Solar Squeezing ENPH +5%, RUN +4%, SPWR
+3.5%, FSLR +3%
Overview: USA SPY 471.24 support 470 467 465 and resistance 473 475,
SPY expected move +/- 3.1, QQQ 404.7 with resistance 405 407 410
and support 400, QQQ expected move 3.6. Global equities higher, yields lower is
positive but US$ is higher. USA equities are led by China internet, profitless
tech, high short interest and sensitivity to long rates [KRE]. MAG7 lagging and
led by TSLA and AMZN. Large Opex today which is call dominated which should
lead to consolidation in the coming week. Indices and many individual stocks
are technically stretched but option flow remains high so momentum can continue
until the music stops and the last short has covered. Today’s daily expected
move levels: SPY (473.2-467), QQQ (407-400), IWM (202.1-195),
SPX(4751-4688).
Stocks to watch: ENPH, MRNA, INTC, GE, ALB, TSLA, LEN
Spec Names: RUN, CHWY, RIVN
Pre-800ET
Earnings: COST, LEN
Indices: TAN, KWEB, ARKK, KRE, IWM, XBI, GDX, SOXX, XLE, ITB, XRT, GLD, /btc, vxx, euro, TLT
S&P500: ENPH, FSLR, COST, INTC, SEDG, PYPL, NCLH, TSLA, CCL, MU, LEN
IWM: FRO,
ENVX, LMND, AI, NOVA, SNDX, IRT, MARA
Movers: JD, ENPH, FRO, RIVN, RUN, CHWY, FSLR, BILI, STM, BEKE, COST,
INTC, TAL, STLA, RIO, AA, PYPL, PATH, EDU, LEN, AZN
Trade Idea: IWM
IWM has been very strong post the FOMC meeting but potential risk today’s Opex with calls expiring. Expected daily range is 202-195. Look for dips to buy > 195 and fade > 195 as there is very little volume support below until 192, 186.