Swing Trade Idea – January 16, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – slight negative equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.5% Currencies: USA +.77%
·
News: USA:Waller FOMC 11ET
Stocks: GS +1.3%, MS +1%, EPS;
Downgrade BA -2.2%, SPR -1.9% Upgrade: HD, NVDA,
DOCU, DG, MU
USA
Health & Human Services opinion that Cannabis has medical benefit is
raising expectation that drug can be re-rated as less dangerous which can
reduce the tax burden for USA companies. Is lifting Cannabis names, but is not
the same as legalization.
Overview: USA SPY 474.8 support 474 473 and resistance
475 480. SPY expected move +/- 2.8 QQQ 407.5 with resistance
410 412.5 and support 406.5 405 400 ; expected move 3.1. USA
indices are negative premarket with Russell 2000 weakest and DJIA strongest.
Macro factors are negative with long yields, US$ and oil higher. Macro
setup can lead to a trend day lower; however markets are still in a supportive
time period until Wed. Middle east escalation is leading to support to shippers
but only a small bid to oil. MAG7 are generally weak with MSFT positive but
remainder negative with TSLA and AAPL leading to downside. Waller speaking at
11ET will be market moving as he has been a hawk but helped launch the market
higher late in 2023 with bullish comments. Breaches of daily expected
move can lead to outsized moves. Today daily expected move levels: SPY
(479.5-473.9) QQQ (412.7-406.5), IWM (195.4-191) SPX(4812-4756).
Stocks to watch: AMD, GS, MSOS, BA, AAPL, TSLA, Spec Names: ZIM,
FRO
Pre-800ET
Earnings: GS, MS, PNC
Indices: MSOS, VXX, UUP, USO, faangmt, KWEB, GDX, /btc, EEM, EFA, FEZ, EWZ, ARKK, KRE, TLT, XBI, euro, IWM
S&P500: AMD, ANSS, GS, MS, BA, FTNT, AAPL, PYPL, TSLA, NEM, CCL, HPE
IWM: FRO,
RIOT, IONQ, CNX
Movers: FRO, ZIM, W, SQM, INMD, ANSS, AMD, GS, CCJ, GMAB, XPEV,
LI, BIDU, HSBC, AZN, STLA, EQNR, CPNG, RKT, CNHI, BILI, BA, MTES, GOLD, GFI,
JD, U
Trade Idea: MSOS
Cannabis is in play after opinion from Health and Human Services that the drug should be rated as less dangerous which can result in lower tax payment for USA companies. MSOS holds a basket of Cannabis companies. Above $8, option market is pricing in $10 and $12