Swing Trade Idea – January 19, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Mild Positive equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.05% Currencies: USA -.14%
·
News: USA:Consumer Sentiment 10ET CDN: Retail
Sales 830ET
Stocks: SMCI +11%, TRV +4.9% EPS; W +15% Layoff
+13%
·
Overview: USA SPY 478.9 support 477 475 and resistance
479 480 . SPY expected move +/- 2.4 QQQ 416.4 with resistance
416 420 and support 410 ; expected move +/-2.7. USA indices have
continued the Thurs surge led by MAG7 and Semis today. Macro factors are
positive with yields, US$ and oil lower. USA large cap indices are at the
top of the daily expected moves which can act as resistance or acceleration
above. Thursday afternoon surge partially due to rolls of covered call ETFs
which may unwind this afternoon as the covered calls are sold. Consumer
confidence at 10ET may be market moving due to the inflation expectation.
Breaches of daily expected move can lead to outsized moves. Today daily
expected move levels: SPY (478.9-474) QQQ (415.7-410.3), IWM
(192.1-190.1) SPX(4805-4757).
Stocks to watch: TRV, AMD, IBM, PYPL, Spec Names: SMCI, W,
Pre-800ET
Earnings: ALLY, RF, SLB, TRV, SMCI,
JBHT
Indices: SOXX, SMH, /btc, ARKK, QQQ, XLK, GDX, faangtm, ARKF, VXX, KWEB
S&P500:
TRV, TXN, IBM, AMD, PYPL, T, NVDA, QCOM, MU, AVGO
Movers: W, SMCI, EDR, TRV, SOXL, MNSO, TECL, VRT, TXN, ROKU, MRVL, IBM,
AMD, PYPL, PLTR, T, CHGG, CELH, LI, ZIM, JD
Trade Idea: PYPL
PYPL has been attracting unusual option activity along with many tech related names. Earnings Feb 7 with call wall at 65 which can act as resistance or acceleration above. Stock is very extended with potential support at 61 if sell activity if price < 62.5