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  • Swing Trade Idea – January 26, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Asia Neutral equity global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.03% Currencies:  USA  -.25%

    ·         News: USA: USA PCE 830ET; New home sales 10ET EUR: ECB members talking down March rate cut
    Stocks:
      LVMHUY +6.8%, CMSA +.3%, AXP +2.2%, BAH +4.7%, CL +.5%,  eps   V -2.4%, INTC -9.4%, KLAC -3% 

    ·         Overview: USA SPY 487.5  support 485   and resistance 490.  SPY expected move +/- 2.7  QQQ 424.5 with resistance  425 430 and support  423 ; expected move 3.5. USA indices are mixed with small caps and spec tech higher and Nasi negative which premarket suggests rotation ahead of PCE. Macro is set-up to front run a lower PCE with yields and US$ lower which if it occurs may benefit the small caps, profitless tech and high short interest with converse true. INTC weak forecast is slightly denting semis premarket but tiny compared to historical. Bitcoin bouncing potentially front running weak PCE and can continue if PCE is low. Look for late day movement in indices today.  Today daily expected move levels: SPY (490.7-485.3),  QQQ (429.9-422.9), IWM (198.4-193.6), SPX(4920.8-4867.6). 

    Stocks to watch
    TSLA, BAH, AMZN,  V, INTC, AMD,  Spec Names PDD, COIN,

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings   V, INTC, TMUS, KLAC, AJG, COF, LHX, FICO, WY, WDC, AXP, CL, NSC, VLVLY 

    Indices /BTC, ARKK, EFA, euro, GDX, XLU, FEZ, XLV, KWEB, SOXX, USO, XLK, QQQ, faangmt, DBC, EEM  

    S&P500  BF, AXP, TMO, DHR, EL, WRK, TSLA,  INTC, KLAC, V, TMUS, WDC, AMAT, AMD, LHX, MU, QCOM, MA, MCHP
    Movers MARA, RIOT, COIN, AVTR, PINS, SNAP, GFI, MSTR, UL, RIOT, TSLA, INTC, KLAC, V, STM, PDD, TMUS, BIDU, WDC, JD, TCEHY, AMD, AMAT, ZIM

     

     

     

    Trade Idea: INTC

    INTC has moved lower greater than the expected move and hence risk for continuation lower but can also bounce. Premarket block trades at 44.75 set a line in the sand. Potential bounce > 45 and fade < 43.5 premarket low. AMD, NVDA are down in sympathy which can also be candidates in either direction though odds favor buys.

     

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