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  • Swing Trade Idea – January 31, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Negative equity global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.4% Currencies:  USA  +.1%

    ·         News: USA: ADP jobs 815ET; FOMC 14ET Europe: Retail sales weaker Canada: GDP 830ET China: PMIs weak but as expected
    Stocks:
      SYK +6%, BSX +3.5%, SBUX +4%, MSFT -.3%, GOOGL -5%, AMD -4.8%,   eps  WMT 3:1 Split, TSLA Musk pay package rejected in court – raising chatter that Musk may need to sell TSLA shares for collateral


    Overview: USA SPY 489.1  support 487 and resistance 490 495.  SPY expected move +/- 3.4  QQQ 421.8 with resistance  425 430  and support  420; expected move 4.7.  USA indices are mixed with QQQ weak but IWM green with the primary catalyst weak earnings reaction to GOOGL and AMD earnings.  Macro factors are mixed with long yields lower and US$ higher.  ADP jobs  report missed and provided a bump to markets so bad news is still good. FOMC meeting in the afternoon will be market moving with bulls hoping for mention of QT tightening. Yellen bill/coupon report due today which will be market moving. SPY and QQQ are above the bottom of the daily expected move which are levels to watch. IMO premarket indicates that rotation possible today rather than broad selling. Given that fundamentals have become irrelevant, I would watch AMD, MSFT and GOOGL for bounces. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (494.3-487.5),  QQQ (430-420.6), IWM (200.8-194.6), SPX(4958.9-4891). 

    Stocks to watch:
    PARA, SYK, SBUX, GOOGL, AMD, TSLA, MSFT, Spec Names 

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings:   SYK, NVO, SBUX, BSX, GSK, SAN,   /BTC, KWEB, USO, SOXX, SMH, FDN, QQQ, ARKK, EEM, XLK

    Indices: IWM, ICLN, XLU, UUP, XBI, XLV, KWEB, USO, EEM, ICLN, XLE, XLI, EWZ, XLV, IBB, IWM  

    S&P500:  PARA, SYK, SBUX, BSX, WBD, WMT,  GOOGL, AMD, MDLZ, TSLA, META, NVDA, AMZN, FTNT, MU, MA,
    Movers: PARA, SYK, SBUX, BSX, GSK, WBD, MT, ING, STLA, NVO, WMT, NYCB, EXTR, AMD, GOOGL, TEVA, AMD, MDLZ, MARA, NVS, DDOG, SNOW, META, SE, COIN




     

     

    Trade Idea: AMD

    AMD is below the expected move post earnings with forecast not meeting expectations. Bounces that fail < 168 are fade opps with > 168 indicating that the stock will be bought. Premarket low 160 is another reference level.

     

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