Swing Trade Idea – January 31, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.4% Currencies: USA +.1%
·
News: USA: ADP jobs 815ET; FOMC 14ET Europe: Retail
sales weaker Canada: GDP 830ET China: PMIs weak but as expected
Stocks: SYK +6%, BSX +3.5%, SBUX +4%, MSFT -.3%, GOOGL -5%, AMD -4.8%, eps WMT 3:1 Split, TSLA Musk pay
package rejected in court – raising chatter that Musk may need to sell TSLA
shares for collateral
Overview: USA SPY 489.1 support 487 and resistance 490 495.
SPY expected move +/- 3.4 QQQ 421.8 with resistance 425 430
and support 420; expected move 4.7. USA indices are mixed with QQQ
weak but IWM green with the primary catalyst weak earnings reaction to GOOGL
and AMD earnings. Macro factors are mixed with long yields lower and US$
higher. ADP jobs report missed and provided a bump to markets so
bad news is still good. FOMC meeting in the afternoon will be market moving
with bulls hoping for mention of QT tightening. Yellen bill/coupon report due
today which will be market moving. SPY and QQQ are above the bottom of the
daily expected move which are levels to watch. IMO premarket indicates that
rotation possible today rather than broad selling. Given that fundamentals have
become irrelevant, I would watch AMD, MSFT and GOOGL for bounces. Today’s daily
expected move levels: SPY (494.3-487.5), QQQ (430-420.6), IWM
(200.8-194.6), SPX(4958.9-4891).
Stocks to watch: PARA, SYK, SBUX, GOOGL, AMD, TSLA, MSFT, Spec Names
Pre-800ET
Earnings: SYK, NVO, SBUX, BSX, GSK,
SAN, /BTC, KWEB, USO, SOXX, SMH, FDN, QQQ, ARKK, EEM, XLK
Indices: IWM, ICLN, XLU, UUP, XBI, XLV, KWEB, USO, EEM, ICLN, XLE, XLI, EWZ, XLV, IBB, IWM
S&P500:
PARA, SYK, SBUX, BSX, WBD, WMT, GOOGL, AMD,
MDLZ, TSLA, META, NVDA, AMZN, FTNT, MU, MA,
Movers: PARA, SYK, SBUX, BSX, GSK, WBD, MT, ING, STLA, NVO, WMT, NYCB, EXTR,
AMD, GOOGL, TEVA, AMD, MDLZ, MARA, NVS, DDOG, SNOW, META, SE, COIN
Trade Idea: AMD
AMD is below the expected move post earnings with forecast not meeting expectations. Bounces that fail < 168 are fade opps with > 168 indicating that the stock will be bought. Premarket low 160 is another reference level.