Swing Trade Idea – February 09, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.13% Currencies: USA +.03%
·
News: USA:CPI seasonal revision 830ET CAD:
Employment change
Stocks: PEP -1.9%, PINS -8.9%, AFRM -9%, MGA -1%, TTWO -7.4, EXPE
-15%, NET +29%, EMBC +9.8%, eps
Overview: USA SPY 499.4 support 497 495 and resistance 500
505. SPY expected move +/- 2.4 QQQ 434.1 with resistance 435
436 and support 432 430; expected move +/-3.1. USA indices are
slightly positive ahead of market moving CPI revision with small caps and
profitless tech leading (IPO, ARKK). Macro factors are neutral with yields and
US$ flattish but will move with the CPI revision. Large cap indices are close
to the daily and weekly expected move hence potential for limited upside or a
major breach higher. Should the premarket positioning continue into the day,
bitcoin, cloud, semis and security stocks are favorable long sectors. Alternate
thesis is a higher CPI revision which will lead to yields higher which may
result in small caps underperforming. SPY 495 remains the key level.
Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (500.8-495.9), QQQ
(435.9-429.7), IWM (198.2-194.2), SPX(5022.3-4973.5).
Stocks to watch: NVDA, NFLX, CRWD, EXPE, AFRM, Spec Names: MARA, CLSK,
PLTR, SNOW
Pre-800ET
Earnings: AFRM, BILL, BYD, CLSK, EXPE,
ILMN, NET, PCTYPI, PAA, MGA, EMBC
Indices: /btc, HACK, BLOK, ARKF, SOXX, SMH, IGV, FDN, IPO, XLK, QQQ, VXX, USO,
GLD, TLT
S&P500:
UAL, AMAT, NFLX, QCOM, EXPE, TTWO, ABNB, PEP,
Movers: NET, CLSK, MARA, RIOT, COIN, ENVX, FSLY, SNOW, S, RIVN, DDOG, PATH,
SHOP, CVNA, EXPE, PINS, TTWO, AFRM, ABNB, BILL, CPRI,
Trade Idea: ARKK
ARKK is an idea should there is a resumption in the move in profitless tech stocks. ARKK is at the top of the daily expected move in the premarket which can lead to an outsized move. Potential long over 49.5 or on pullback > 49. Should CPI revision be higher ARKK is a potential fade 48.9