Swing Trade Idea – February 15, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.5% Currencies: USA -.15%
·
News: USA: Retail Sales; UE claims, Empire state Mfg, Philly
Fed 830ET; Ind Prod 915ET; Waller 1315ET; JPN: GDP q/q -0.1% UK:
GDP q/q -0.3%
Stocks: CSCO -4%, ALB -3.9%, DE -3.5%, FSLY -19%, YETI -14%, SHAK +22%,
FROG +18%, CROX +7%, UPWK +1%, APP +22%, eps, NVDA ,F,
ARM, RXRX +20%, SOUN, TSP, NNOX, lifting the names
Overview: USA SPY 499.8 support 496 495 and resistance 500
501. SPY expected to move +/- 2.6, QQQ 434 with resistance 435
436.8 and support 430 425; expected move +/- 3.5. USA indices are
positive prior to retail sales and UE claims premarket data which may move
markets. USA equity markets are poised risk off with small caps and spec tech
leading . All concerns regarding sticky inflation and fewer FED rate cuts
supplanted by algos flowing into momentum and high short interest names. AAPL
sale by buffet weighing on stock and OpenAI developing websearch weighing on
GOOGL – likely overdone but will require money to shift to other MAG7 if QQQ
holds up. Japan and UK entering technical recession irrelevant. Breaches of
daily expected moves can lead to larger moves LIKE YESTERDAY. Today’s daily
expected move levels: SPY (501.2-496), QQQ (436.8-429.8), IWM
(201.8-196.5), SPX(5026.4-4974.8).
Stocks to watch ENPH, TSLA, NFLX, CSCO, GOOGL, AAPL, Spec Names RXRX, APP,
CROX, FSLY
Pre-800ET
Earnings
Indices ARKK, /btc, IPO, IWM, XBI, ARKF, GDX, TLT, SMH, MSOS, VXX, USO
S&P500 ENPH, NEM,
AAL, CSCO, PARA, ALB, DE, F, GOOGL, MMM
Movers RXRX, APP, SHAK, FROG, DWAC, CROX, COIN, PTEN, SMCI, STLA, MARA,
RUN, CLSK, ENPH, SEDG, CRWD, IONQ, AI, ARM, U, HLF, FSLY, MANU, YETI, PENN,
PBF, CSCO, PARA, WEN
Trade Idea: ARKK
ARKK is a way to trade the algo flow into profitless tech and high short interest. Risk is slew of premarket data which can move markets. Momentum long > 50.5 or pullback buy > 50