Swing Trade Idea – April 25, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.36% Currencies: USA$ -.2% Vix: +4.3%
·
News: USA : GDP, UE claims 830ET; Pending home sales 10ET
Stocks: DB+7%, TER+6%, AAL+4.5%, NEM+4%, MRK+3%, META-15%,
IBM-9%, CAT-4.6%, EPS
Overview: USA SPY 502 support 500 495 and resistance 505 508.6,
SPY expected move +/- 3.2. QQQ 422 with resistance 428 430 and support
422 420 415; expected move +/-4.5. Large cap indices are lower premarket at the
bottom of the daily expected move so potential for bounce or accelerated
downside move. META, IBM, NOW, lower and dragging down the cloud stocks and
companies that raise money through advertising. GDP is weaker than
expected which may help the market but prices paid is higher so focus will now
turn to MSFT earnings and PCE Friday. SPX is negative gamma hence
large moves are possible, so caution is suggested. SPY 500, SPX5000 are major
levels to watch with potential for larger downside moves below or bounce. If
the market holds up, we may see outperformance in non-growth sectors. Today’s
daily expected move levels: SPY (508.6-502), QQQ (431-422), IWM
(199.5-195.8), SPX(5103-5039).
Stocks to watch: AAL, NEM, FCX, HON, AAPL, TSLA, AAPL, META, IBM,
NOW, Spec Names
Pre-800ET
Earnings: META, IBM, NOW, LRCX, WM, CMG, ORLY, VALE, F,
URI, ALGN, MOH, TER, AR, MRK, AZN, CAT, CMCSA, UNP, HON, UL, BMY, EQNR, MO,
NOC, VLO, CARR, HES, KDP, NEM
Indices: VIX, GDX, COPX, SLV, IWM, FXI, QQQ, ARKF, ARKK, SPY, DIA, XLK, IGV,
KWEB, EFA, TLT,
S&P500: TER, AAL, NEM, RCL, MRK, CCL, HON, FCX, NCLH, META, IBM,
LUV, CAT, GOOGL, IP, AMZN, MNST, MSFT,
Movers: DB, TAL, UL, AZN, HCP, CLS, EQNR, SNY, MBLY, EDU, TECK, STM, AU,
CUK, TCN, SCCO, GOLD, PAAS, GFI, PINS, SNAP, VIST, BHP, CLSK, RIOT,
NVO, MARA, ARM, LI, VALE, ROKU, VRT, U
Trade Idea: META
META has made a 2 standard deviation move lower on forecast for slower earnings growth. Premarket low 399 and high 432. Short covering may lead to a bounce that will likely be sold. A decision level is 400 which is a potential bounce level or further breakdown below. Currently very little volume support at the current level.