Swing Trade Idea – April 30, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral-negative global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.05% Currencies: USA$ +.24%, Vix: -.45%
·
News: EUR : GDP and CPI above expectations CDN:
GDP 830ET USA: Employee Cost index 830ET; Consumer confidence 10ET
Stocks: HSBC+4.4%, THC+10%, PYPL+4.6%, LLY+6.5%, MMM+6.4%, ST+19%, CCJ -3%, MCD
-0.7%, KO -.06%, GEHC-7.5%, COUR-13.8%, EPS
Overview: USA SPY 508.2 support 508 505 and resistance 510
512.5, SPY expected move +/- 2.4., QQQ 430.9 with resistance, 433
435 and support 430 428.9; expected move +/-3.9. USA indices are lower
premarket as long rates continue to rise post Treasury QRA announcement Monday.
Small caps are most sensitive hence leading to downside. Long yields and US$
higher is a negative macro set-up. China econ data was not strong and may be a
reason that commodities and commodity currencies are weak or alternatively it’s
end of month rebalancing with commodities being rebalanced lower. SPX5100
is an important bull/bear line today. JPM hedged ETF is rolling today with a
large short call at 5115 which may act as resistance. MAG7 led by AMZN with
earnings AM. TSLA squeeze is being sold today, watch. Bitcoin is unusually
lower into month end, typically is marked up, watch. Today’s daily expected
move levels: SPY (512.5-507.7), QQQ (436.7-428.9), IWM (201.6-198.4),
SPX(5140-5092).
Stocks to watch AMZN, LLY, MMM, PYPL, TSLA, MSTR, Spec Names ST
Pre-800ET
Earnings WELL, NXP, MSTR, YUM, LLY, KO, MCD, ETN,
STLA, AMT, ITW, PYPL, TT, MMM
Indices VIX, XLV, UUP, IBIT, SLV, GDX, COPX, FXI, KWEB, FXY, ARKK, TSM,
QQQ
S&P500 LLY, MMM, PYPL, MOS, NXPI, GLW, AON,
AMD, AMZN, GEHC, GL, TSLA, NEM, FCX
Movers ST, THC, HSBC, ROKU, FRO, NVO, GOGL, BE, BUD, PHG, EQNR, SQ, TTD,
W, COUR, BBVA, MSTR, STLA, YUMC, AU, GFI, PUK, CLSK, CCJ, PAAS, LSCC,
JD, BILI, AA
Trade Idea: PYPL
PYPL is higher post earnings, it has pulled back from the expected move (73). 70 is a large call OI level can be used as a decision level. <70 may open the door for a fade towards 67 >70 a move to 73 and higher. PYPL has changed their method for earnings calculation which may cause some gyrations