Swing Trade Idea – May 9, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.4% Currencies: USA$ +.12% Vix: +.26%
·
News: USA: US UE claims 231k vs 212k; 30y bond auction 13:00 ET
UK: BOE rate unchanged, leaning to cuts China: Trade improving –
sentiment increasingly positive
Stocks: APP+13.5%, CAKE+4.5%, HOOD+5.3%, HUBS+8%, RUN+4%, ZLAB+17%,
YETI+12%, WRBY+12%, ABNB-8.8%, ARM-7.8%, SEDG-6%, RBLX-25%, EPS
·
Overview: USA SPY 517.4 with support at 515, and resistance at 520; SPY
expected move +/- 2.2. QQQ at 440.5 with resistance at 442 and 443 as well as
support at 437 and 435; QQQ Expected move +/-2.8. Macro set-up is mixed but
improving premarket with long yields higher but US$ now down largely due to the
UE claims higher than expected (bad=good). The 30y bond auction at 13:00 ET
will be important today. SPX has been muted the last few days with a large 5200
option SPX position acting as resistance and 5150 as support. Break of either
of these levels will lead to a significant move. Positive China trade data is
lifting. China stocks and providing a lift to metals and potentially energy as
China growth=inflation. MAG7 are somewhat muted but positive COST sales results
may spillover to AMZN. NFLX has been running and looks like it may continue to
open. Many earnings names reported, look for continuation or reversals. Volume
has been well below average which IMO means that institutions are on the
sidelines ahead of new data in the form of inflation data next week. In the
meantime 0DTE rule the roost. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY
(519.4-515) QQQ (443-437), IWM (205-202) SPX(5210-5165).
Stocks to watch KWEB, UBER, HUBS, ARM, ABNB
Spec Names ZLAB, YETI, RBLX, RIOT
Pre-800ET
Earnings ANET, MCK, OXY, SU, CPNG, EA, TWLO, WYNN, RIVN,
CFLT, MTCH, _TM, UBER, BUD, SHOP, EMR, AFRM
Indices KWEB, SLV, FXI, GDX, BITI, VIX, GLD, XLRE, IWM, DBC, EWC, BITO, ARKG,
TLT
S&P500 QCOM, UBER, SMCI, PARA, NEM, ABNB, CRM,
PFE, PANW, IBM
Movers ZLAB, WRBY, APP, YETI, BMBL, VITL, KVYO, HUBS, HOOD, VSTS, RUN, SN,
CAKE, FUTU, BILI, BEKE, AFRM, RBLX, DUOL, ALGM, EXAS, SEDG, ARM,
BBVA, DV, U, PZZA, SONY, PLNT, RIOT
Trade Idea: ARM
ARM holdings are lower post earnings after providing weaker guidance. Semis have continued to be bought in spite of weak guidance and ARM is a popular retail stock. Long idea > 100 with target 102-106. May be able to trade a bounce that fails 100 with a target of 97.
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