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  • Swing Trade Idea – May 14, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral global set-up

    ·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.2% Currencies: USA$ +.05% Vix: -.8%

    ·         News: USA: PPI .5% vs .3% Powell 10:00 ET UK: UE lower, wages higher EUR: German ZEW improving but weak
    Stocks:
    ONON +9.5%, SE +6.9%, SONY+2.5%, HD+0.2%, BABA-5%, EPS GME+147%, AMC+117%, HOLO +36%, SPWR+58%, BB+25%, TLRY+6% Roaring Kitty is back. High short interest names in play.

    ·         Overview: USA SPY 521.3 with support at 520, 518, and 515, and resistance at 523.8 and 525; SPY expected move +/- 2.9. QQQ 443.2 with resistance at 445 and 450, and support at 442 and 440; QQQ expected move +/-2.5. USA indices were subdued ahead of PPI print, fell on print and then recovered so right now no impact and casino remains open. IWM is leading as the squeeze in high short interest names aka meme stocks continues. Volume has been very low hence larger move expected over next 2 days with market positioned to move higher hence PPI/CPI need to not surprise to upside. BABA earnings are weighing on China stocks today, watch reaction in leading China names. Metals are strong in spite of China stockpiles (platinum, palladium, silver, copper). MAG7 are lagging ex-TSLA which was upgraded and maybe getting a lift on WH raising China EV tariffs. Solar industry imports heavily from China but are also shorted so may see nonsensical lift in names like SPWR et al. Long/short hedge funds were deleveraging yesterday and it could continue today which means the high short interest names rise and widely held fall. No idea when the casino closes but caution is advised. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (523.8-518), QQQ (445.6-440.6), IWM (206.8-202.6), and SPX (5250.7-5192). 

    Stocks to watch ONON, TSLA, AAPL, FCX, HOOD, BABA, AMZN, META, NVDA

    Spec Names GME, AMC, UPST

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings
    Indices
    VIX, XBI, COPX, IWM, SLV, GDX, GLD, bitcoin, FXI, KWEB, Yen, QQQ
    S&P500 WDC, FCX, SMCI
    Movers GME, ONON, SE, HOOD, SONY, BHP, TRMD, RIVN, STLA, RUN, UPST, PENN, LMND, CVNA, AI, EDU, SYNE, APP, BABA, MNSO, RILY, JD, MARA, CLSK, PBR, COIN, LI, MSTR, BUR, GOGL, TME, FUTU, ZIM, DKNG

     

    Trade Idea: HOOD

    MEME stocks and high short interest names are flying which may provide a boost for HOOD that retail are using. There is large call open interest at 18, 19, 20. Potential long idea above 18. Higher strike calls are trading at higher IV, which means call spreads are a higher reward/risk way to trade HOOD and meme in general.  Caveat is that the crazy meme phase will be transitory and HOOD might not join in with the rest of the gang.

     

     

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