Swing Trade Idea – May 14, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.2% Currencies: USA$ +.05% Vix: -.8%
·
News: USA: PPI .5% vs .3% Powell 10:00 ET UK: UE lower,
wages higher EUR: German ZEW improving but weak
Stocks: ONON +9.5%, SE +6.9%, SONY+2.5%, HD+0.2%, BABA-5%, EPS GME+147%,
AMC+117%, HOLO +36%, SPWR+58%, BB+25%, TLRY+6% Roaring Kitty is back. High
short interest names in play.
·
Overview: USA SPY 521.3 with support at 520, 518, and 515, and resistance
at 523.8 and 525; SPY expected move +/- 2.9. QQQ 443.2 with resistance at 445
and 450, and support at 442 and 440; QQQ expected move +/-2.5. USA indices were
subdued ahead of PPI print, fell on print and then recovered so right now no
impact and casino remains open. IWM is leading as the squeeze in high short
interest names aka meme stocks continues. Volume has been very low hence larger
move expected over next 2 days with market positioned to move higher hence
PPI/CPI need to not surprise to upside. BABA earnings are weighing on China
stocks today, watch reaction in leading China names. Metals are strong in spite
of China stockpiles (platinum, palladium, silver, copper). MAG7 are lagging ex-TSLA
which was upgraded and maybe getting a lift on WH raising China EV tariffs.
Solar industry imports heavily from China but are also shorted so may see
nonsensical lift in names like SPWR et al. Long/short hedge funds were
deleveraging yesterday and it could continue today which means the high short
interest names rise and widely held fall. No idea when the casino closes but
caution is advised. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (523.8-518), QQQ
(445.6-440.6), IWM (206.8-202.6), and SPX (5250.7-5192).
Stocks to watch ONON, TSLA, AAPL, FCX, HOOD, BABA, AMZN, META, NVDA
Spec Names GME, AMC, UPST
Pre-800ET
Earnings
Indices VIX, XBI, COPX, IWM, SLV, GDX, GLD, bitcoin, FXI, KWEB, Yen, QQQ
S&P500 WDC, FCX, SMCI
Movers GME, ONON, SE, HOOD, SONY, BHP, TRMD, RIVN, STLA, RUN, UPST, PENN,
LMND, CVNA, AI, EDU, SYNE, APP, BABA, MNSO, RILY, JD, MARA, CLSK, PBR, COIN, LI, MSTR,
BUR, GOGL, TME, FUTU, ZIM, DKNG
Trade Idea: HOOD
MEME stocks and high short interest names are flying which may provide a boost for HOOD that retail are using. There is large call open interest at 18, 19, 20. Potential long idea above 18. Higher strike calls are trading at higher IV, which means call spreads are a higher reward/risk way to trade HOOD and meme in general. Caveat is that the crazy meme phase will be transitory and HOOD might not join in with the rest of the gang.