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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.37% Currencies: USA$ -.14% Vix: +.62%

·         News: USA: CPI, Retail sales, Empire State Mfg 8:30 ET EUR: GDP q/q .3% unch, Ind Prod 0.6% above expectations
Stocks: MNDY+18.6%, DT+4.5%, BOOT-5.7%, DLO-30%, EPS GME-9.5% 

·         Overview: USA SPY 523.2 with support at 520, 518, and 515, and resistance at 525 and 527.6; SPY expected move +/- 4.3. QQQ 445.7 with resistance at 450, and support at 441 and 440; QQQ expected move +/-4.7.  *** CPI print inline and .1% lower m/m; retail sales inline 0.2% m/m and -.7% lower c.f. previous, Empire Mfg -15.6 and lower than expected. Take away is a stagflation print that the market will interpret as positive as increased odds of a Fed cutting rates but not really positive for a consumer led economy since sales are not inflation adjusted so this is a retail sales contraction. Reaction by indices was the expected bounce. IV is elevated into the data so a bounce is natural as is the outperformance of more speculative sectors. Initial bounce is inside the daily expected move and is a good level to watch today. SPY 520 and QQQ 440 are key bull bear levels.  Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (527.6-519), QQQ (450.6-441.2), IWM (211-202.7), and SPX (5290-5203). 

Stocks to watch TSLA, AMD, DELL, SE, BIDU, TLT, KVUE, PBR

Spec Names MNDY, DT, GME

Pre-800ET
Earnings
Indices VIX, IBIT, KWEB, SLV, Yen, TLT, FXI, GLD, GDX, US$
S&P500 KVUE
Movers MNDY, NXT, FOUR, DT, SMFG, NU, DELL, ST, SE, BEKE, BBVA, MSTR, BIDU, CLSK, DLO, GME, PBR, NVAX, DHT, BCS, WDS, KVUE, CRH

Trade Idea: SPY

SPY has moved higher on the Pavlovian response to CPI inline, retail sales cooler and Empire State MFG weaker. The pop is mechanical due to hedging in case of a hot print. SPY touched the top of the weekly expected move (527) which 70% of time is a guard rail but a breach can lead to a larger move to the upside. Under the hood the CPI may be troubling for the Fed as the housing component is sticky. Retail sales are not inflation adjusted so this indicates a net reduction in consumer spending which is not positive for a consumer led economy. Would keep an open mind today with 525 as the level to watch for fades and 527 as the level for a trend move higher. There are calls above targeting 530. Good luck today!