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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – negative global set-up

·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.4% Currencies: USA$ +.08% Vix: +4.5%

·         News: USA: Richmond mfg 10:00 ET; FOMC Williams 13:45 ET; EUR: German CPI
Stocks: CHWY+13%, DKS+7%, AAP+2.7%, ANF+1%, CAVA-3%, EPS  COP-1.9% buying MRO+9%; AAL-9% forecast cut and executive leaving, sympathy move by other airlines
Overview: USA SPY 526 with support at 527.8 and 525, and resistance at 531.7 and 530; SPY expected move +/- 2. QQQ 455.8 with resistance at 460 and 462.3, and support at 457, 455, and 452; QQQ expected move +/- 2.6.  Global indices are risk-off premarket with long yields higher and 10Y now over 4.5%. Breadth has been weak with the S&P500 supported by outsized moves by NVDA and AI related names and premarket the MAG7 and semis are being distributed. NVDA is down slightly and along with AAPL still outperforming.  USA indices are below the daily expected moves which can lead to larger moves to the downside should 0DTE traders buy puts. SPY 525 is a key bull/bear level today. SPX 5300 is a key level with large put positions at 5290 and 5275.  Yields are moving now on Fed head comments with Kashkari Tues bearish. Today Williams is speaking at 1345 who is more dovish and more important as a voting member and head of the NY Fed. Watch the 10Y yields today with 4.5% the magic level that can flip the algos from bear to bull.  Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (531.8-527.8), QQQ (462.3-457), IWM (206.4-204), and SPX (5326-5286). 

Stocks to watch AAPL, MRO, DKS, NVDA, TSM, AMD, MSFT, GOOGL, AAL

Spec Names HOOD, CAVA 

Pre-800ET
Earnings
Indices USO, UUP, FXI, UNG, IWM, ARKK, EFA, GLD, XME, XBI, IBIT, QQQ, XLF, SPY, XLRE, XLI, XLK
S&P500 MRO, AAL, MRNA, LUV, DAL, CCL, COP, FSLR, ENPH, AMD, QCOM, MU, FCX, SMCI, VST
Movers CHWY, MRO, IMVT, DKS, ASO, HOOD, ANF, BHP, BHVN, AAL, OZK, GME, CCCS, NVAX, CAVA, MRNA, OKLO, BE, RUN, CCL, LUV, STM, ASML, TSM, COIN, PLTR

Trade Idea: SPY

USA indices are risk-off premarket with rising 10Y yields the concern. SPY is below the daily expected move which can lead to larger downside moves. Key level is 525 where expect bounce or further breakdown. The weekly expected move is 523.5 and will close the gap from May 15. 21 EMA is at 522.6. Williams speaking today at 13:45 ET will be market moving and if markets are weak, he may try to calm them being of the dovish nature. Since trading is dominated by 0DTE, if markets are down later in the afternoon typical behavior is to bounce as puts cover. But if SPY < 525 late in the afternoon, a larger downside move is possible.