Swing Trade Idea – June 26, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight negative global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.6% Currencies: USA$ +.32 Vix: +.52%
·
News: USA: USA New Home Sales10ET AUD: CPI y/y 4% vs
3.8%
Stocks: FDX+14.7% EPS beat and exploring corporate changes; RIVN+38% VW
investment; WHR+17% Bosch may buy; MU+2% EPS after
close; NVDA+1.4% shorts covering still? ALB+2.7% Hold more
Li auctions? Could squeeze
AAPL+.8%
Upgrade GIS -4.6% EPS May
impact other food companies LUV-4% cut
forecast, will impact other airlines
Overview: USA SPY 543.9 with support at 542 and 540, and resistance at 545
and 547; SPY expected move +/- 2.1. QQQ 479 with resistance at 480 and 482, and
support at 476.8 and 475; QQQ expected move +/- 2.6. Global equity markets are
weak premarket with USA indices all red with IWM leading to downside. Macro
set-up is negative with long yields and US$ higher. NVDA and AAPL strength is
supporting the US large cap indices. Small caps tend to underperform with
rising yields. Inflation concerns are likely the risk du jour as AUD reported
higher inflation overnight and CAD reported higher CPI yesterday. SPY 542.5 is
a good bull/bear level to watch. End of quarter is Friday and though window
dressing is usually positive there could be hedging into Fri PCE which may lead
to weakness. Assuming large cap indices hold up, look for the algos to use
selected MAG7 to support with NVDA and AAPL the leaders premarket. SPX 5400 is
the key hold level for bulls. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY
(546.9-542.7), QQQ (482-476.8), IWM (202-199), SPX(5490-5448).
Stocks to watch NVDA, AAPL, FDX, ALB, GIS, LUV
Spec Names RIVN
Pre-800ET
Indices USO, UUP, FXI, XLK, UNG, TLT, IBIT, EFA, XLP, IWM, XLF,
EWC
S&P500 FDX, ALB, MU, NVDA, UPS, APTV, GIS,
LUV, UAL
Movers RIVN, WHR, FDX, VSTO, NTES, HOOD, ALB, MU, UPS, NVDA, AU, BEKE,
OSCR, SHOP, APTV, GIS, DJT, LUV, SNY, GME, UBS, RDDT, MSTR, BILI, SEDG
Trade Idea: MU
MU reports after the close. Large bid on Tuesday is being sold premarket. 140 is short term support and can be used as a bull/bear level. Expected move is +/-16 and analysts will be watching to see if this company which has been struggling will post outsized revenue due to AI. Very elevated IV this expiration is good for directional diagonal option trades as shared with Option Members. MU will move the semi sector so take care if long semis into the close.