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Date: Jun 27, 2024 

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Asia – Neutral global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.21%  Currencies: USA$ -.08%  Vix: -.06%

·       News:  USA: GDP, UE Claims, Durable goods 830ET Pending Home Sales 10ET
Stocks: MU-5.8%, WBA -16%, LEVI -15.7%, BB +7.2% EPS Semis pullback with MU NVDA-1.5%, AMD -0.6%, AVGO -0.5%
Overview: USA SPY 545.5 support 545 543 542.5 and resistance 546.5 547.7 SPY expected move +/- 2.1. QQQ 480.1 with resistance 482 485 and support 478 475 expected move +/- 2.6. USA econ data: GDP inline, UE claims lower, core durable goods lower, GDP price index higher. Market reaction is bullish with equity higher, US$ lower and bonds higher however data does not support FED rate cuts but also does not indicate a weakening economy. IWM is the prime beneficiary of the data and may outperform with MAG7 overbought and MU weighing on semis however its common for a bump on inline econ data due to short covering. PCE data and EOQ rebalance Fri and presidential debate tonight are far more significant events. NVDA weakness will necessitate buying other MAG7 to support QQQ, premarket AMZN is the leader. Gold and silver are benefiting from the move lower in US$. Pending home sales at 10ET may be market moving with HD and LOW names to watch. Reminder that Fri is the big moving day with IV elevated and large moves expected. Banks all passed stress tests and potential for buybacks or dividend increases that can be announced Friday night or Monday. SPX 5400 is the key hold level for bulls. Today daily expected move levels: SPY (547.7-543.4) QQQ (483-477.8), IWM (201.2-198.8) SPX(5499-5456). 

Stocks to watch  AMZN, AAPL, MU, NVDA, WBA Spec Names  SMR HIMS 

Pre-800ET
Indices USO, GLD, IBIT, XLE, FXI, ARKK, XLK, XLF, QQQ
S&P500  MKC, AMAT, WBA, IP, MU, CVS, NVDA, V, USB, WFC
Movers SMR, MARA, CLSK,  HIMS, SM

Trade Idea: AMZN

AMZN is short-term overbought after a big upmove Wednesday.  Prime day is Jul16 with the potential to run into the event. The expected move into prime day is +/-10. Bullish OTM calls with 195 a breakout level to use for a trigger. Ideally, look for a pullback >= 153.