Swing Trade Idea – July 8, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.42% Currencies: USA$ +.06% Vix: -1.5%
·
News: USA: Bill auction 11:30; Consumer credit, Used car
prices 15ET France: Hung parliament
Stocks: MORF+75% Buyout by LLY; GLW +6% Guidance increased
AI:) ; PLTR+2.6% Follow through INTC +3.3% Bounce continues Bitcoin May
be basing MSTR FLNC MARA
Overview: USA SPY 552.2 support 550 552 550 and resistance 557 560 SPY
expected move +/- 2.3. QQQ 496.7 with resistance 500 and support 495 493
expected move +/- 3.2. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (556.9-552.4)
QQQ (499.4-493), IWM (202.1-199.7) SPX(5589.9-5544.5).
USA indices are divergent with IWM +.6% but SPY and QQQ flat. MORF acquisition
by LLY leading to the usual buying of broad biotechs
which have been very weak. Semis are bid today with UBS lifting NVDA price
target and another company pumping INTC and AMD. MAG7 is generally higher with
GOOGL and TSLA the outliers. MAG7 were all at or above weekly expected moves
last week. Macro set-up is neutral with bonds rising premarket and now flat and
US$ flat. No major econ data today so market is free
to move where 0DTE option traders want. Indices are very extended technically
with CPI data and Powell speaking this week. Positive gamma means that dips
will be bought and rips sold. Small caps are ripping,
it’s not obvious if will continue into open but worth
watching. Commodities are being hit hard premarket after strong move Fri which
indicates that the move last week was short covering – watch. Bitcoin is at an
inflection point where bounce or breakdown is possible. Miners are bid
premarket. AI trade is alive and kicking, possibly since it is a day ending in
Y or GLW raised estimates based on AI
Stocks to watch IBIT, INTC, NVDA, TSM, BA, PLTR, GLW, TSLA Spec Names MORF,
IDYA, FLUT
Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, ETHE, KRE, XBI, UNG, IWM, XLK, FXI, USO, XLE, GLD, TLT
S&P500 GLW, INTC, GILD, PARA, TGT, AMD, SMCI, NOW, XOM,
TSLA
Movers MORF, IDYA, GLW, SEDG, INTC, TSM, CNK, PLTR, FLUT, ENVX, MSTR,
FLNC, TGT, MARA, ARQT, ZIM, NOW, EQNR, CELH, AU
Trade Idea: PLTR
PLTR is a breakout name with no obvious news driving the move on Friday. Large call position at 28 which can act as resistance or serve as a catalyst for a gamma squeeze towards 30. Earnings Aug 5. Long > 28 or on pullback >=27 is the idea.