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  • Swing Trade Idea – July 8, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral global set-up

    ·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

    ·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.42% Currencies:  USA$ +.06% Vix: -1.5%

    ·       NewsUSA: Bill auction 11:30; Consumer credit, Used car prices 15ET  France: Hung parliament
    Stocks:
     MORF+75%  Buyout by LLY; GLW +6% Guidance increased AI:) ; PLTR+2.6% Follow through INTC +3.3% Bounce continues  Bitcoin May be basing MSTR FLNC MARA
    Overview: USA SPY 552.2 support 550 552 550 and resistance 557 560 SPY expected move +/- 2.3. QQQ 496.7 with resistance 500 and support 495 493 expected move +/- 3.2. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (556.9-552.4) QQQ (499.4-493), IWM (202.1-199.7) SPX(5589.9-5544.5). USA indices are divergent with IWM +.6% but SPY and QQQ flat. MORF acquisition by LLY leading to the usual buying of broad biotechs which have been very weak. Semis are bid today with UBS lifting NVDA price target and another company pumping INTC and AMD. MAG7 is generally higher with GOOGL and TSLA the outliers. MAG7 were all at or above weekly expected moves last week. Macro set-up is neutral with bonds rising premarket and now flat and US$ flat. No major econ data today so market is free to move where 0DTE option traders want. Indices are very extended technically with CPI data and Powell speaking this week. Positive gamma means that dips will be bought and rips sold. Small caps are ripping, it’s not obvious if will continue into open but worth watching. Commodities are being hit hard premarket after strong move Fri which indicates that the move last week was short covering – watch. Bitcoin is at an inflection point where bounce or breakdown is possible. Miners are bid premarket. AI trade is alive and kicking, possibly since it is a day ending in Y or GLW raised estimates based on AI

    Stocks to watch
    IBIT, INTC, NVDA, TSM, BA, PLTR, GLW, TSLA  Spec Names MORF, IDYA, FLUT

    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    IBIT, ETHE, KRE, XBI, UNG, IWM, XLK, FXI, USO, XLE, GLD, TLT
    S&P500  GLW, INTC, GILD, PARA, TGT, AMD, SMCI, NOW, XOM, TSLA
    Movers MORF, IDYA, GLW, SEDG, INTC, TSM, CNK, PLTR, FLUT, ENVX, MSTR, FLNC, TGT, MARA, ARQT, ZIM, NOW, EQNR, CELH, AU





    Trade Idea: PLTR

    PLTR is a breakout name with no obvious news driving the move on Friday. Large call position at 28 which can act as resistance or serve as a catalyst for a gamma squeeze towards 30. Earnings Aug 5. Long > 28 or on pullback >=27 is the idea.

     

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