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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup- Pre-730ET 

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.94% Currencies: USA$ +.06% Vix: +.02%

·         News: USA: Empire state mfg 8:30 ET; Powell 10:00 ET China: Retail sales 2% vs 3.3%; GDP4.7% Q/Y vs 5.1% CDN: BOC Business Outlook 10:30 ET
Stocks: DJT+46% Trump Media MSTR+7.8% CLSK+6.7% bitcoin related TSLA +3.8% Elon endorsed Trump SMCI +3.3% added to Nasi; UNH+1.8% ASML+1.4% TSM +.6% earnings this week GS BLK positive earnings result AAPL Upgrade SEDG layoffs 

·         Overview: USA SPY 561.9 with support at 560 and 557, and resistance at 562.7 and 565; SPY expected move +/- 2.7. QQQ 497.1 with resistance at 499 and 500, and support at 495 and 490.3; QQQ expected move +/- 4.5.  USA indices have been rising overnight led by IWM and QQQ. Last week saw a hard rotation from large cap growth leaders to laggards that is still showing some continuation sign but MAG7 is holding. Trump assassination attempt has increased the odds of him being elected as well as a potential house & senate sweep. The Trump stocks DJT CXW GEO have skyrocketed. Bitcoin is up substantially and is being thought of as a Trump trade. MSTR CLSK HUT IREN are some of the bitcoin related names. Solar stocks on the other hand which were boosted with short squeezing last week are pulling back.  TSLA is trading higher, potentially since Elon endorsed Trump. Macro set-up is not bullish, long yields are higher and US$ is slightly higher. There is a narrative that Trump would be more inflationary.  China data is generally weaker and leading to weakness in commodities, which popped last week with the large move lower in the US$ and yields. With Opex this week, S&P usually well supported into Wed due to options positioning.


Expected moves SPY(562.7-557.3), QQQ (499.3-490.3), IWM(216-210.2), and SPX (5642-5588)

Stocks to watch AAPL, IBIT, TSLA, ARKK, SEDG, RUN

Spec Names DJT, GEO 

Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, ETHE, ARKK, KRE, SMH, IWM, XLE, XLY, XLK, QQQ, UNG, MSOS, TLT, FXI, XLU, USO, SLV
S&P500 TSLA, SMCI, AAPL, UNH, CVS, AMD, NVDA, HAL, HBAN, ENPH, FSLR, ALB, NEE, AES, BAX
Movers DJT, MSTR, CXW, GEO, HUT, CLSK, SMR, MARA, BTDR, IREN, CORZ, TSLA, SEDG, RUN, DQ, FSLR, FLNC, NXT, BIDU, ENPH, BILI, BE

Trade Idea: ARKK

ARKK is a breakout candidate with a combination of growth and a large TSLA weighting. It is extended premarket with a gap-up and 47.5 the reference level. Large call positions at 50 which sets a target for the week. ARKK is extended with value closer to 46 which is a better longer term entry. Could use TSLA as a trigger with a long ARKK if TSLA > 460.