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  • Swing Trade Idea – August 1, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral global set-up

    ·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond+.5% Currencies: USA$ +.3% YEN -.2% Vix: +.32%

    ·         News: USA: USA Jobless claims 8:30 ET; USA ISM mfg PMI 10:00 ET UK: 25bps rate cut EUR: MFG PMI 45.8 minimal improvement; UE rate 6.5% vs 6.4%
    Stocks:
    ARM-8.6%, ETSY-3%, MRNA-14.9%, HSY-5%, QCOM-0.8%, WDC-4%, MBLY-9%, W-12%, META+8.7% EPS
    Overview: SPY 553.6 with support at 550 and 545, and resistance at 555.7; SPY expected move +/- 4.9. QQQ 473.3 with resistance at 475 and 477.5, and support at 470 and 465; QQQ expected move +/- 6.5.  Global indices are mixed with Europe and Japan down but USA indices higher. USA is lifted by large cap tech following META earnings. NVDA continues higher after a massive move Wed with shorts squeezed and hyperscalers forecasting higher capital expenditure. AMZN and AAPL, which are still to report, are also contributing. Semis sector is higher due to NVDA however ARM (which sells to most semi co’s) is down on a weaker forecast as is QCOM LRCX. SPY and QQQ are approaching the top of the weekly expected move while IWM is in the middle and is lagging large caps. USA PMI at 10ET may be market moving. Key today is the MAG7 and NVDA & META in particular.

     

    Expected moves SPY (555.7-545.9), QQQ (477.5-464.5), IWM (228.9-218.9), and SPX (5571-5473)

    Stocks to watch
    NVDA, META, AMZN, LLY, MRNA, W, WDC

    Spec Names CDNA, SHAK, SAVA

    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    XLC, UNG, QQQ, SPY, XLK, ARKK, XLY, SLV, TLT, XLRE, SMH, ETHE, EFA, IBIT, EWC
    S&P500 APTV, META, LLY, NVDA, SMCI, AMZN, ANET, GEV, CRWD, CCL, AAPL, FSLR, MRNA, HSY, WDC, HES, ALB, ETSY, QCOM, MMM, ON
    Movers CDNA, SHAK, CVNA, TMDX, LTH, APTV, RCM, META, SAVA, ZETA, BTU, RDDT, RUN, SNAP, LLY, ATEC, MRNA, W, TENB, CFLT, ARM, TS, ARM, MBLY, CROX, STM, GT, ALB, ETSY

     

    Trade Idea: AMZN

    AMZN reports after the close. The expected move is +/-11. Short term very extended after a drop and pop Wed. Market will be focused on AWS revenue growth and capital expenditure forecast, which will impact NVDA. Intraday 190 is a long trigger and pullbacks > 187.5 may be buyable. Below 187.5 look for 185.

     

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