Swing Trade Idea – August 9, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.26% Currencies: USA$ -.11% YEN +.35% Vix: 24.8%
·
News: China: CPI y/y 0.5% s 0.3%, PPI -0.8%y/y CAD:
Employment 8:30 ET
Stocks: TTD+5%, TTWO+6%, EXPE+8.4%, AKAM+5.5%, FIVN-14%,
PODD-3.4%, ELF-8% EPS
Overview: SPY 528.9 with support at 528 and 525, and resistance at 530,
535, and 536.5; SPY expected move +/- 5.7. QQQ 446.4 with resistance at 450 and
455, and support at 445, 441.3, and 440; QQQ expected move +/- 6.8. USA indices
pulling back premarket after Thursday’s short squeeze. Premarket is set-up for
a rotation out of MAG7 stocks with IWM outperforming NASI. Yen is higher
premarket and Nikkei is down 1.8% and Nasi usually trades correlated with
Nikkei and inverse to the Yen, especially with the unwind of the Yen carry
trade. GOOGL and META are particularly weak, perhaps with Trump asking
followers to not use GOOGL. SPX is still put dominated and in negative gamma
which can lead to greater volatility. SPX 5350 and 5300 are the big levels to
watch today. No major economic data so 0DTE trading will dominate.
Expected moves SPY (536.4-525), QQQ (454.9-441.3), IWM (209.9-203.9), SPX
(5376.3-5262.3)
Stocks to watch TTD, EXPE, TSM, NVDA, IBIT, GOOGL, META, ELF
Spec Names SG
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, IBIT, UNG, TLT, USO, GDX, XME, SLV, XBI, MSOS, FXI,
QQQ, SPY
S&P500 EXPE, AKAM, PARA, LRCX, LLY, GOOGL, INTC, META, AAPL
·
NASI TTD+5%, LRCX+1.4%, ASML, GOOGL, INTC, AZN, META
IWM SG+24%, RNA+20%, ADMA+17%, ELF-7%
Trade Idea: GOOGL
GOOGL gapped down post earnings and today is moving lower on report that Trump asking followers to not use. QQQ in general is pulling back after the recovery bounce which is negative for GOOGL. Potential bounce trade > 160 with target 162 or if it continues lower targets 157.5 155. GOOGL has already moved down the expected daily move and currently below the weekly so oversold.