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  • Swing Trade Idea – August 9, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral global set-up

    ·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.26% Currencies: USA$ -.11% YEN +.35% Vix: 24.8%

    ·         NewsChina: CPI y/y 0.5% s 0.3%, PPI -0.8%y/y CAD: Employment 8:30 ET
    Stocks:
    TTD+5%, TTWO+6%, EXPE+8.4%, AKAM+5.5%, FIVN-14%, PODD-3.4%, ELF-8% EPS

    Overview: SPY 528.9 with support at 528 and 525, and resistance at 530, 535, and 536.5; SPY expected move +/- 5.7. QQQ 446.4 with resistance at 450 and 455, and support at 445, 441.3, and 440; QQQ expected move +/- 6.8. USA indices pulling back premarket after Thursday’s short squeeze. Premarket is set-up for a rotation out of MAG7 stocks with IWM outperforming NASI. Yen is higher premarket and Nikkei is down 1.8% and Nasi usually trades correlated with Nikkei and inverse to the Yen, especially with the unwind of the Yen carry trade. GOOGL and META are particularly weak, perhaps with Trump asking followers to not use GOOGL. SPX is still put dominated and in negative gamma which can lead to greater volatility. SPX 5350 and 5300 are the big levels to watch today. No major economic data so 0DTE trading will dominate.   Expected moves SPY (536.4-525), QQQ (454.9-441.3), IWM (209.9-203.9), SPX (5376.3-5262.3)

    Stocks to watch TTD, EXPE, TSM, NVDA, IBIT, GOOGL, META, ELF

    Spec Names SG  

    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    ETHE, IBIT, UNG, TLT, USO, GDX, XME, SLV, XBI, MSOS, FXI, QQQ, SPY

    S&P500 EXPE, AKAM, PARA, LRCX, LLY, GOOGL, INTC, META, AAPL 

    ·         NASI TTD+5%, LRCX+1.4%, ASML, GOOGL, INTC, AZN, META
    IWM SG+24%, RNA+20%, ADMA+17%, ELF-7%

     

    Trade Idea: GOOGL

    GOOGL gapped down post earnings and today is moving lower on report that Trump asking followers to not use.  QQQ in general is pulling back after the recovery bounce which is negative for GOOGL. Potential bounce trade > 160 with target 162 or if it continues lower targets 157.5 155. GOOGL has already moved down the expected daily move and currently below the weekly so oversold.  

     

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