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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral  global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.25%  Currencies:  USA$  -.13% YEN +.0% BTC/USD 1.85%  Vix: 17.0

·         News:  USA: Empire mfg 830ET  CDN: CPI  EUR: German ZEW economic sentiment well below expectations

·         Stocks: AAPL -2.5% iPhone shipment data below expectations NVDA-1.7% SMCI -1.9% AI names pulling back post short squeeze MU -3% Industry DRAM forecast potentially topping plus AI fade INTC +1.7% $3.5B defense deal
Overview: SPY 565.3 support 565 562 560 and resistance 565.8 SPY expected move +/- 3 QQQ 475.8 with resistance 476.3 480 support 473 470 expected move +/- 3.1. Premarket USA indices have risen since European open to close to the top of the daily expected move. USA retail sales were 0.1% m/m c.f. -.2% and core 0.1% c.f. .2%. Reaction was small drops in WMT, TLT and a rise in US$ but indices reaction muted. Retail sales can be interpreted as not indicating a consumer spending problem and hence no rational for FED cutting interest rates substantially.   Canadian CPI -0.2% m/m c.f. 0%, Common CPI 2% c.f. 2.2% with CAD$ falling in reaction. Market movers: INTC deal to mfg chips for AMZN sometime (IMO yrs not days); MSFT raising dividend and buying $60B stocks; HPE DELL GEV SHOP upgrades; bitcoin related names. MAG7 generally bid led by MSFT NVDA with AAPL in the red but financials are also bid. With indices close to the top of the daily expected move and bid up premarket potential for a sharp move higher or a sell the pop situation. Bond market has priced in a higher likelihood of 50bps of cuts supported by media talking heads. Risk Wed is a Fed that is less accommodating which will weigh on assets which have benefited from the projected slashing of rates which includes bonds, small caps, utilities, staples, foreign currencies. This week and next is historically weak with Vix expiration and tax payment occurring Wed along with FOMC and BOJ Thurs ergo some caution is a consideration with indices and some major stocks extended.

Expected moves SPY(565.8-559.8) QQQ (476.3-470) IWM(222.5-212.7) SPX (5663-5603)


Stocks to watch INTC, MSFT, SHOP, HPE Spec Names MBLY

Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, UNG, FXI, ETHE, KWEB, SMH, XLK, MSOS, IGV, USO, GLD, GDX

S&P500 INTC, HPE, GEV, MSFT, CRWD, MU, ABNB, SLB 

NASI INTC, MSFT, PDD, CRWD, NVDA, MU
All INTC, LI, MBLY, HPE, SHOP, DELL, IEP, MSTR, MSFT, MARA, PLTR, ARM, COIN, BABA, U, JD, MU, SEDG, MGNI, SFTBY

Trade Idea: SHOP

SHOP has gapped up with an upgrade from Redburn to 99 as well as better than expected retail sales. Large call positions at 75 make it a bull/bear level. SHOP is potentially either a breakout or breakdown candidate as a double top is potentially forming. Breakout level 76.1. Pullbacks > 75 are potential day trade opportunity if confirmed. AMZN is a name to watch for confirmation in the online retail space.